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美联储将以“适度步伐”退出量宽

2014-01-09    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Fed puts dovish spin on tapering decision

The US Federal Reserve plans to “proceed cautiously” in slowing down its asset purchases as the minutes of its December meeting put a dovish spin on the momentous decision to taper its third round of quantitative easing.

美联储(Federal Reserve)计划“谨慎推进”其缩减资产购买的进程。最新公布的美联储12月会议纪要,给缩减第三轮量化宽松(QE3)的重大决定蒙上一层温和色彩。

In his press conference after the meeting, outgoing chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that the Fed was likely to slow its purchases by $10bn at each meeting. The minutes show that this was intended to calm market fears of a quicker exit rather than signal that the Fed was in a hurry to end the QE3 program.

即将离任的美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在那次会议结束后的新闻发布会上曾暗示,美联储可能以每次开会决定缩减100亿美元的步伐逐渐减少资产购买。会议纪要显示,此言意在平息市场对快速退出量宽的担忧,而不说明美联储急于终结QE3计划。

The minutes show that there was a strong consensus behind the Fed’s decision to taper. “Most participants saw a reduction in the pace of purchases as appropriate at this meeting,” they say.

会议纪要显示,美联储的缩减决定背后存在强烈共识。“大多数与会者认为,本次会议减缓购买步伐是合适的,”会议记录显示。

At its December meeting, the Fed decided to slow purchases from $85bn-a-month to $75bn-a-month, and added new guidance that interest rates were likely to stay low well after the unemployment rate fell below a threshold of 6.5 per cent.

美联储在12月会议上决定,将资产购买规模从每月850亿美元减至每月750亿美元,并增添了新的指引,称利率很可能在失业率跌穿6.5%的临界值之后相当长时期内保持在低位。

The decision on when to taper drove global financial markets for most of 2013 but the eventual move caused little disruption.

美联储何时开始缩减的问题,在2013年的大部分时间里驱动着全球金融市场走势,但最终的真正举动并没有引发震荡。

In words reminiscent of the infamous “measured pace” that the Fed used to describe slow interest rate rises in the early 2000s, under then chair Alan Greenspan, the minutes say that asset purchases should be slowed down in “measured steps”. The Fed’s measured pace of rate rises was later blamed for keeping interest rates too low for too long and helping to fuel the house price bubble. The use of similar language again could create concerns about whether the Fed will respond to changing economic conditions.

会议纪要称,资产购买应当以“适度步伐”放缓,此言让人联想起21世纪初美联储用来描述缓慢加息的“适度节奏”,当时的美联储主席是艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan),他的“适度”加息节奏后来被指在太长时间里维持过低利率,助推了房地产价格泡沫。使用类似的措辞可能令人担忧美联储会否及时因应不断变化的经济环境。

But in the very next line of the minutes, the Fed tried to answer that concern with the contradictory message that “the pace of asset purchases was not on a preset course”.

但就在会议纪要的下一行,美联储试图用与此矛盾的措辞化解这一担忧,称“资产购买的步伐并未预先设定”。

Even though most participants supported the decision to taper, several others “stressed that the unemployment rate remained elevated, that a range of other indicators had shown less progress toward levels consistent with a full recovery in the labor market, and that the projected pickup in economic growth was not assured”.

尽管大多数与会者支持缩减决定,但也有数人“强调失业率仍然高企,一系列其他指标显示劳动力市场的改善并未达到全面复苏的程度,而预测的经济增长加速并无保证”。

There were also concerns that inflation was too low, indicating that there was some dissent on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and there is still a group that will push for easy policy to support the economic recovery.

还有人担心目前通胀率过低,这表明在负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)中存在一些异议,而且还有一些人力主实行宽松政策以支持经济复苏。

In a further signal of the Fed’s willingness to keep asset purchases going if needed, most of the FOMC said they did not think there would be any reason to stop QE3 because of concerns about bubbles or financial stability.

还有另外一个信号表明美联储愿意在必要情况下维持资产购买行动,联邦公开市场委员会的大部分成员表示,他们不认为有关泡沫或金融稳定性的担忧是停止QE3的理由。

“Most participants judged the marginal costs of asset purchases as unlikely to be sufficient, relative to their marginal benefits, to justify ending the purchases now or relatively soon,” say the minutes.

“大多数与会者的判断是,相对于其边际效益,资产购买的边际成本不太可能在现在或相对较短时间内构成停止购买的充分理由,”会议纪要显示。(FT)



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