用户名: 密码: 验证码:    注册 | 忘记密码?
首页|听力资源|每日听力|网络电台|在线词典|听力论坛|下载频道|部落家园|在线背单词|双语阅读|在线听写|普特网校
您的位置:主页 > 英语能力 > 翻译 > 笔译 > 练习材料 > 经济 >

2014年金价展望:不会重获吸引力

2014-01-10    来源:forbes    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Outlook For Gold In 2014
2014年金价展望:超长牛市将结束,探底至1000美元

Gold had a rough 2013. With a loss of 28% on the year, the spot price of gold was down by nearly the same percentage that the S&P 500 was up.  And I don’t expect gold to regain its shimmer in 2014.

2013年黄金命途多舛。现货黄金价格全年下跌了28%,跌幅差不多和标普500指数同期的涨幅相同。而且我预计2014年黄金投资不会重获吸引力。

Let’s take a look at the macro environment as we enter the new year:

在我们迈入新的一年之际,让我们来看看宏观环境:

•The inflation that gold enthusiasts have feared since the onset of the 2008 crisis is dead on arrival.  The latest CPI figures show an inflation rate of just 1.2%, and energy prices are actually falling.

·自2008年金融危机爆发以来热情的黄金投资者就一直担忧的通胀问题现在绝无可能出现。最新发布的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国的通胀率只有1.2%,而且能源价格实际上正在持续下跌。

•The quantitative easing that fueled the inflation fears of the past few years is already being tapered, from $85 billion in bond purchases per month to $75 billion per month…with more tapering to come.

· 过去几年以来助长通胀担忧情绪的量化宽松计划已经在逐步缩减规模,每月购债券规模从840亿美元缩减至750亿美元……接下去还会进一步缩减规模。

•The Federal budget deficit, though still far too high, continues to fall and is expected to be just 3.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2014.

· 美国联邦预算赤字虽然仍然太高,但在持续下降,预计2014财年将仅占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的3.3%。

•Gold miners are contemplating hedging their risk by selling their production forward,  which will effectively cap the price of gold (and sends a very negative signal to the market).

· 各大金矿公司正在考虑通过提前销售来对冲他们的风险,这将有效地限制金价(并且向市场发出一个非常不利的信号)。

•Hedge funds and other large institutional buyers—the driving force behind much of the rise in the spot price of gold in the past decade—appear to be abandoning gold if the outflows from gold ETFs are any indication.  Gold ETF holdings are now at their lowest levels since 2008.

· 如果黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金外流是某种迹象显示的话,那么在很大程度上作为过去十年来黄金现货价格上涨的背后驱动力的对冲基金及其它大型机构投资者,似乎正在放弃黄金。目前黄金ETF的持仓量正处于自2008年以来的最低水平。

• Gold now has competition in the anti-establishment crowd from Bitcoin and other “virtual” currencies.  (I think Bitcoin is a joke, mind you, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t continue to steal gold’s thunder for a while longer.)

· 如今在反权威人群中黄金来有了自比特币及其它“虚拟”货币的竞争。(请注意,我认为比特币不过是场闹剧,但这并不意味着它不会在一段时间里继续抢黄金的风头。)

And on top of all of this, we should remember that gold had a monster secular bull market run that lasted twelve years.  When the last bull market in gold broke, in 1980, it took two decades for it to finally find a bottom.

而且除了上述这一切因素之外,我们还应该记住,黄金已经经历了一轮持续了12年的超长牛市。上一轮黄金牛市于1980年结束之后,黄金价格花了二十年才最终找到一个底部。

I try not to spend much time on specific price targets, as I see these as being something of a distraction but I expect the spot price of gold to finish in the range of $1,000 to $1,100.

我尽量不在具体目标价格上花费很多时间,因为我认为这些目标价格会分散注意力,不过我预计到今年年底黄金现货价格最终会处于每盎司1,000至1,100美元的区间内。

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of Macro Trend Investor Investor and chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management. Click here to receive his FREE weekly e-letter covering market insights, global trends, and the best stocks and ETFs to profit from today’s exciting megatrends.

本文作者查尔斯·李维斯·塞兹莫尔(Charles Lewis Sizemore)是一位注册金融分析师,他是投资简讯《宏观趋势投资者》(Macro Trend Investor)的编辑,而且担任投资公司塞兹莫尔资本管理(Sizemore Capital Management)的首席投资官。点击此处可获得他每周一封免费的电子版投资简讯,该简讯涉及市场洞察、全球趋势,以及从如今令人兴奋的诸多大趋势中获利的最佳股票和ETF。

(forbeschina)



顶一下
(1)
100%
踩一下
(0)
0%
手机上普特 m.putclub.com 手机上普特
[责任编辑:elly]
------分隔线----------------------------
发表评论 查看所有评论
请自觉遵守互联网政策法规,严禁发布色情、暴力、反动的言论。
评价:
表情:
用户名: 密码: 验证码:
  • 推荐文章
  • 资料下载
  • 讲座录音
普特英语手机网站
用手机浏览器输入m.putclub.com进入普特手机网站学习
查看更多手机学习APP>>