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全球钢铁业今年将迎来复苏

2014-01-13    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Steel industry set for recovery

The global steel industry is expected to make a recovery this year led by a rebound in Europe and the rest of the world, offsetting a slowdown in Chinese growth.

全球钢铁行业预计今年将实现复苏,因为欧洲和世界其他地区钢产量增长反弹,将抵消中国增长减速的影响。

World production of steel will rise by 3.6 per cent in 2014, with growth finally returning to Europe after bottoming out last year, according to a Financial Times poll of 15 steel analysts.

英国《金融时报》对15位钢铁业分析师的调查显示,2014年世界钢产量将增长3.6%,其中欧洲钢产量在去年见底后将终于开始反弹。

A 2.4 per cent year-on-year increase in output in Europe, following six years of decline, will partly offset a slowdown in China as the world’s biggest steel producer moves from an investment to a services-driven economy.

经过6年的持续下降后,欧洲钢产量将首次实现2.4%的同比增长,这将部分抵消中国增长减速的影响。全球最大钢铁生产国中国正在推动经济增长模式从投资拉动型转向服务拉动型。

Chinese steel production is expected to rise year-on-year by just 4 per cent, compared with about 6 per cent in 2013, according to top steel analysts.

上述对15位顶级钢铁分析师的调查显示,预计中国钢产量预计将仅同比增长4%,低于2013年的约6%。

Matthew De Morgan, chief executive officer of Duferco, the world’s biggest steel trader, said: “The steel sector will have a better 2014 in terms of volumes and we are past the bottom from this perspective, but the pricing outlook is not spectacular.”

世界第一大钢铁贸易公司杜弗克(Duferco)的首席执行官马修•德摩根(Matthew De Morgan)表示:“就产量而言,钢铁业已经触底反弹,将迎来一个更景气的2014年,但价格前景并不是特别光明。”

The research supports forecasts by the World Steel Association that growth rates for Chinese steel output will drop below the rest of the world for the first time since 2006.

调查结果支持世界钢铁协会(World Steel Association)的预测,即:中国钢产量增幅将自2006年以来首次落到其他国家后面。

The industry body expects world steel production excluding China to rise by 3.5 per cent year on year, surpassing growth of 3 per cent in China. Overall global growth last year was 3.1 per cent.

世界钢铁协会预计,包括中国在内的世界钢产量将同比增长3.5%,超过中国3%的同比增长率。去年全球钢产量增幅为3.1%。

John Lichtenstein, global managing director of Accenture’s metals industry group, said: “This pattern will probably persist for the indefinite future as China shifts to a services and consumer-driven economic growth model, and growth in the other emerging economies takes stronger hold.”

咨询公司埃森哲(Accenture)的全球金属业务主管约翰•利希滕斯坦(John Lichtenstein)表示:“这种局面很可能会持续一段时间,中国正转向服务和消费者拉动型经济增长模式,而其他新兴经济体的经济增长趋于强劲。”

The bulk of new steel production capacity growth is instead expected to come from regions such as India, the Gulf, Latin America and former Soviet states over the next few years, according to Brian Levich of Metal Bulletin Research.

英国《金属导报研究》(Metal Bulletin Research,MBR)的布赖恩•莱维希(Brian Levich)称,未来几年,新增钢产能增长预计将主要来自印度、海湾地区、拉美和前苏联国家。

The pick-up in European output will provide a boost to companies’ earnings, particularly Europe-based steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal and Thyssen-Krupp, which have been hit by weak demand on the continent in the construction and car industries.

欧洲钢产量反弹将提振企业盈利,尤其是对总部位于欧洲的钢铁制造商而言,比如安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)和蒂森克虏伯(ThyssenKrupp)。欧洲制造业和汽车业的钢材需求疲弱,近年冲击着欧洲的钢铁制造商。

In recent months, steel companies have become more optimistic on the outlook. In November, Lakshmi Mittal, chief executive of ArcelorMittal, said that it had passed the bottom of its two-year slump, while Tata Steel also noted modest improvements.

近几个月来,钢企对前景的预期变得更为乐观。去年11月,安赛乐米塔尔的首席执行官拉克希米•米塔尔(Lakshmi Mittal)表示,该公司持续两年的低迷已经见底。塔塔钢铁(Tata Steel)也报告看到一些起色。

But top steel analysts warned that there remained significant problems in the steel sector that would continue to weigh on profits and prevent a full recovery.

但顶级钢铁业分析师警告称,钢铁业仍存在一些不容忽视的问题,这些问题会持续拖累钢企的盈利能力,并妨碍钢铁业实现完全复苏。

While analysts foresee a strengthening of the recovery in steel output, they are far from predicting a return to the days of rapid global growth seen before the financial crisis.

尽管分析师们预测钢产量将迎来更强劲的复苏,但他们的预测距离金融危机前那种全球快速增长的日子仍相距遥远。(FT)



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