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IMF就全球经济弱点发出警告

2014-01-22    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

IMF warns on global weaknesses

Weaker emerging economies are exposed to sudden capital flight with the global economy on course to strengthen as expected this year, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨日表示,随着今年全球经济的增长势头如预期般转强,较弱的新兴经济体面临着资本突然外逃的风险。

Although the fund said growth in most advanced and emerging economies was accelerating as expected, it said the world was “not out of the woods yet” with deflation fears rising in Europe and the US and vulnerability in some emerging economies.

IMF表示,尽管大多数发达经济体和新兴经济体增长速度如预期一样在加快,但世界“仍未脱离险境”,在欧洲和美国,人们日益担心出现通缩,而一些新兴经济体则存在脆弱性。

The warnings came as the IMF upgraded its 2014 global growth expectation by 0.1 percentage point. It now forecasts 3.7 per cent expansion of the global economy in 2014, a figure that shows it is recovering from the 3.0 per cent rate last year.

上述警告发出之际,IMF刚刚将2014年全球增长率预期调高了0.1个百分点。IMF现在预测,2014年全球经济增长率将为3.7%,按照这个数字,全球经济将在去年增长3%的基础上延续复苏态势。

Britain’s ability to surprise the fund with its recovery continued with its growth forecast upgraded 0.6 percentage points, more than any other country, to 2.4 per cent in 2014.

英国经济复苏势头再次出乎IMF的预料,IMF将2014年英国的增长率预期调高了0.6个百分点,至2.4%,上调幅度超过其他任何国家。

Launching the update of the IMF’s forecasts, which reflect data that have been published since October, Olivier Blanchard, chief economist, said the global recovery so far was much as had been expected.

在对2014年全球经济预测(该预测反映了自去年10月以来发布的数据)做出更新时,IMF首席经济学家奥利维耶•布朗夏尔(Olivier Blanchard)表示,全球经济复苏情况迄今基本符合预期。

“The basic reason behind the stronger recovery is the brakes to the recovery are progressively being loosened. The drag from fiscal consolidation is diminishing. The financial system is slowly healing. Uncertainty is decreasing,” he said.

他说:“复苏势头增强的根本原因是,限制复苏的制动装置逐渐被松开。财政整固对经济的拖累日益减少。金融体系正在缓慢恢复健康。不确定性日益减少。”

But the fund reiterated its longstanding concerns about the fragility of the recovery and warned central banks not to withdraw monetary stimulus “prematurely”. Recognising the Federal Reserve would taper its asset purchases, Mr Blanchard said its move would cause “complex capital movements across countries” and “the evidence from last year is that emerging market economies with weak macro frameworks may be most affected”.

但IMF重申了它对此轮复苏脆弱性的长期担忧,警告各国央行不能“在条件不成熟”的情况下撤销货币刺激。在谈到美联储(Fed)缩减资产购买的计划时,布朗夏尔表示,此举可能“在许多国家引发复杂的资本流动”,此外,“去年的证据显示,宏观框架脆弱的新兴市场经济体受到的影响可能最为严重”。

The fund amplified concerns raised by Christine Lagarde, managing director, that advanced economies must avoid the “ogre” of deflation.

IMF强调了总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)此前表明的担忧,警告称,发达经济体必须严防通缩这个“恶魔”。(FT)



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