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新兴市场国家面临加息压力

2014-01-28    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Pressure mounts on EM nations to lift rates

Emerging market countries are facing fresh pressure to raise interest rates, after Brazil warned that others would need to follow its lead in tightening monetary policy and Turkey’s central bank convened an emergency rate-setting meeting.

新兴市场国家正面临着新的加息压力,此前巴西警告,其它国家需要效仿该国收紧货币政策,同时土耳其央行举行一个制定利率的紧急会议。

Alexandre Tombini, Brazil’s central bank governor, told the Financial Times that the “vacuum cleaner” of rising interest rates in the developed world would continue to suck money out of emerging markets and force other central banks to tighten policy to beat inflation.

巴西央行行长亚历山大•通比尼(Alexandre Tombini)对英国《金融时报》表示,发达国家利率上升,将起到“吸尘器”的作用,继续从新兴市场吸走资金,并迫使其它国家的央行收紧政策以抑制通胀。

The emerging markets sell-off continued yesterday with currencies and global equities taking a further hit. The Brazilian real tumbled to its weakest level in five months while the Turkish lira fell by 2.7 per cent to touch an all-time low of T2.39 against the dollar.

新兴市场的抛售昨日继续,相关货币以及全球股市遭受进一步打击。巴西雷亚尔跌至五个月来最低水平,而土耳其里拉下跌2.7%,触及1美元兑2.39里拉的历史低点。

The Turkish currency rebounded after the central bank said that it would hold an extraordinary meeting at midnight tonight, prompting expectations of an interest rate rise after 11 straight days of lira declines. “If there isn’t an interest rate hike there will be carnage,” said Refet Gurkaynak, an economist at Bilkent University in Ankara.

土耳其里拉随后反弹,原因是该国央行宣布,将在今日午夜举行特别会议。在里拉汇率连续11天下跌后,此举令人预期利率将会上调。“若没有加息,将会发生‘大屠杀’,”安卡拉比尔肯大学(Bilkent University)经济学家Refet Gurkaynak表示。

By midday in New York, the S&P 500 was down 0.5 per cent, about 3.6 per cent below the record high it struck earlier this month, while the Wall Street’s “fear index”, the CBOE Vix, was up a further 2 per cent and on track for a three-month high. The FTSE 100 shed 1.7 per cent while The Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.5 per cent to its lowest close since mid-November.

截至纽约午盘,标准普尔500(S&P 500)指数下跌了0.5%,相比本月早些时候创下的最高纪录已下跌大约3.6%,而华尔街的“恐惧指数”——芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(CBOE Vix)进一步上升2%,逼近三个月高点。英国的富时100(FTSE 100)指数下跌1.7%,而日经225指数(Nikkei 225)下跌2.5%,至11月中旬以来的最低收盘价。

The latest market jitters were triggered by last week’s abrupt devaluation of the Argentine peso, which provided a reminder of the vulnerabilities some countries face as central banks in the developed world tighten monetary policy.

最新的市场恐慌是阿根廷比索上周突然贬值引发的,这提醒世人注意到:随着发达国家的央行收紧货币政策,某些国家的脆弱性将暴露出来。

Mr Tombini said the normalization of world interest rates was ultimately positive for emerging markets as it reflected economic recovery taking hold in the developed world.

巴西央行行长通比尼表示,全球利率正常化最终而言对新兴市场是一个积极的动态,因为它反映出经济复苏在发达国家站稳脚跟。

“Relative price adjustments should not be confused with fragility,” said Mr Tombini, referring to the 15 per cent depreciation of the Real last year.

“相对价格的调整不应与脆弱性混为一谈,”通比尼在谈到巴西雷亚尔去年贬值15%时表示。

“The Brazilian response has been very classic – tightening policy, using foreign reserves as buffers. Other countries will have to follow suit . . . some may be reluctant.”

“巴西的反应一直是经典的——收紧政策,利用外汇储备作为缓冲。其它国家将不得不效仿……有些国家可能不情愿。”

Economists said other emerging markets that could be forced to tighten monetary policy included India, Indonesia and South Africa.

经济学家们表示,可能被迫收紧货币政策的其它新兴市场包括印度、印度尼西亚和南非。

Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s finance minister, said he did not believe that recent market volatility heralded a full blown emerging markets crisis.

墨西哥财政部长路易斯•比德加赖(Luis Videgaray)表示,他不认为近日的市场波动预示着一场全面的新兴市场危机。

“I see some emerging markets that have issues. Investors have been expecting corrections there,” he said. “So there will be jitters and volatility . . . but also differentiation.”

“我看到一些新兴市场有一些问题。投资者预期那些市场将出现回调,”他表示。“因此会有不安和波动……但也会出现差异化。”(FT)



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