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中国高铁扩建谁买单?

2014-01-28    来源:fortune    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

中国大举扩建的高铁每年花费可能高达1000亿美元,总债务更是达到了惊人的4200亿美元。债务问题怎么解决?把这笔账全部算到乘客身上行不通。政府、高铁运营方、从高铁建设中受益的工业企业应该共同挑起这个担子。

China's massive rail expansion is good for the economy. Burying it under $420 billion of debt isn't. The long awaited dismantling of China's sprawling Ministry of Railways and creation of a new rail company, announced on March 10, is a good moment to change track.

中国规模巨大的铁路扩建活动有利于推动经济发展,但为此要背上4,200亿美元的债务负担就不妙了。3月10日,中国官方宣布分拆铁道部(Ministry of Railways),转而组建一个全新的铁路公司。人们对此期待已久,同时这也是中国铁路事业转变发展轨迹的良好契机。

A grand plan to double track length to 120,000 kilometres between 2010 and 2015 is likely to cost over $100 billion a year. It's worth it. As well as comfort, prestige and low emissions, rail is the ticket to better urbanization. A recent World Bank report calculated that the benefits to a city of better connectivity from high-speed rail could be almost as large as those from saving passengers time and operating costs.

在2010-2015年间,中国计划将铁路运营里程翻上一番,达到12万公里,期间预计每年将耗资1,000亿美元。这个投资是值得的。高铁不仅舒适快捷,信誉良好,碳排放量低,还是实现更高水平城市化的必由之路。世界银行(World Bank)近期发布的一份报告称,综合计算下来,高铁不仅给乘客节省了时间,降低了运营成本,并且也使城市交通更便捷。

The funding, though, has been pure folly. Projects depend on borrowing from Chinese state banks and issuing bonds -- which in turn are mostly bought by the banks. The resulting debt, on a notional 6% interest rate, would require $25 billion a year of interest payments. Passengers aren't rich enough to cover that cost.

但中国高铁的融资却一直是本糊涂账,各类项目完全依靠国有银行贷款及自行发债支撑,而债券多数又由银行买入。高铁因此债务累累,按6%的理论年利率计算,每年光利息就高达250亿美元。从乘客身上赚回这笔成本是指望不上的。

It's not too late to turn things around. The first step is to admit that the government must pay a share. Even successful rail networks like Sweden's and Japan's have depended on subsidies and bailouts. It would make sense to turn a chunk of rail-related borrowing into straight sovereign debt, and relieve the newly created China Rail Corp of having to repay it.

但现在设法扭转局面还为时不晚。首先就是要承认,政府必须承担一部分债务。瑞典和日本这样成功的高铁网络也离不开政府补贴和资助。把中国高铁的巨额债务直接转为国债合情合理,而且新成立的中国铁路总公司(China Rail Corp)也无须偿还这笔债务。

Then there's future investment. Here, it makes sense to link costs to benefits. China could learn from Hong Kong's mass transit system, which is funded partly through government grants of land. New lines boost land prices, which the operator can either develop and sell, or use as collateral for loans. When Hong Kong's MTR listed in 2000, property made up 15% of its total assets -- by June 2012, it was 32%.

接下来就是未来的投资问题。在这个问题上,可以把成本和收益挂钩。中国可以向香港地铁公司学习。香港地铁系统通过政府给予土地出让许可,从而获得了部分融资。它的机制是,新开通的线路推高地价后,公交运营方可以开发或销售相关地块,或者用它来抵押贷款。香港地铁公司(MTR)2000年上市时,总资产的15%是地产——到了2012年6月,这个比例已经上升到了32%。

Finally, funding could come from those who benefit most: heavy industrial companies. Shifting passengers off low-speed lines will relieve chronic overloading. Freight traffic has tripled since 1990, and as much as 40% of what rides on the rails is coal. Charge users -- notably state-owned enterprises -- their fair share, and China's railways don't have to end in financial wreckage.

此外,融资还应该来自于高铁建设最大的受益方:重工业企业。因为高铁从低速线路上转移了大量乘客,解决了长期存在的货物超载问题。自1990年以来,中国的铁路货运量翻了三倍,其中多达40%的货物都是煤炭。如果让这类用户——主要是各类国企——为高铁合理分担建设成本,中国铁路就不至于因为资金困局关门大吉。(财富中文网)



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