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美国1月份就业数据令人失望

2014-02-10    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

US employment growth disappoints in January

The US economy added just 113,000 jobs in January, as the unemployment rate edged down to 6.6 per cent – dashing hopes of a steady acceleration in the recovery and posing a challenge to Janet Yellen in her first weeks as Federal Reserve chair.

美国经济在1月份仅新增11.3万份工作,失业率微幅降至6.6%,击碎了人们对于经济复苏稳步加速的期盼,并给刚出任美联储(Fed)主席的珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)带来挑战。

After job creation slumped in December, economists were very keen to assess whether that dip was an anomaly or a reflection of a deeper slowdown in the strength of the US economy.

在12月新增就业大幅下降之后,经济学家们非常渴望能够评估:那次下降是暂时的异常现象,还是反映美国经济强劲程度的更深层次放缓?

With payroll formation in January rebounding only slightly, and well below economists’ expectations of 180,000 new positions, fresh concerns are likely to mount about the US economy entering a new rough patch. But last month’s figures may also be a poor guide, in that bad weather across big portions of the country could have distorted the data.

鉴于1月份新增就业仅略有反弹,且远低于经济学家们预测的18万新职位,各方很可能再度担忧美国经济进入一个新的颠簸阶段。但是,1月份的数据也可能是糟糕的指南,因为美国大片地区的恶劣天气可能扭曲了数据。

US equity futures were firmer, the dollar weakened and Treasury bond prices rose after the report was released.

就业报告发布后,美国股指期货走强,美元走弱,而美国国债价格上涨。

“A very mixed and confusing employment report,” said Alan Ruskin, strategist at Deutsche Bank. “There are a plethora of valid excuses for confusing data including snow, drought, annual revisions and benefit changes. Against this backdrop, this data will not change the Fed’s well-defined $10bn per meeting tapering path.”

“一份有好有坏、令人困惑的就业报告,”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)策略师艾伦•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)表示。“对于令人困惑的数据,可以找到大量合理的借口,包括大雪、干旱、年度修订以及福利金变化。在这个大背景下,这批数据不会改变美联储每次会议缩减100亿美元资产购买的清晰计划。”

The payrolls data are often the most closely watched part of the jobs report, and over the past few years they have been remarkably steady in showing that employers are creating new positions at a monthly rate of between 150,000 and 200,000.

工资单数据往往是就业报告中最受关注的部分,过去几年里,该数据一直相当平稳,显示美国雇主每月创造15万至20万新职位。

Revisions to payroll numbers for the past two months were somewhat encouraging, adding 34,000 new jobs. But virtually all the improvement was concentrated in the month of November, with the weak December reading bolstered by just 1,000 new jobs.

此前两个月修订后的工资单数字比较令人鼓舞,增加了3.4万新职位。但几乎所有上调都集中在11月,而本已疲弱的12月数字仅上调1000新职位。

Among the weakest areas in the labour market in January were government, which lost 29,000 positions, and retail, which shed 13,000 positions. Manufacturing and construction were fairly strong, adding 21,000 and 48,000 jobs respectively. The average work week held steady at 34.4 hours, while average hourly earnings edged up to $24.21.

1月份劳动力市场最薄弱的领域是政府部门(失去2.9万职位)和零售业(失去1.3万职位)。制造业和建筑业则相当强劲,分别增加2.1万和4.8万就业机会。平均每周工作时间保持在34.4小时,而平均时薪微幅升至24.21美元。

The separate and more volatile survey of households was more encouraging, however, showing a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent that was driven more by people finding employment than dropping out of the work force.

不过,针对家庭的波动较大的另一项调查更加令人鼓舞。该调查显示失业率降至6.6%,而主要驱动因素是人们找到工作,而非退出劳动力市场。

The labour force participation rate, which had been falling more than many economists had forecast in recent years, edged up to 63 per cent.

近年降幅超过许多经济学家预测的劳动参与率,微升至63%。

Concerns about the decline in labour force participation in the world’s largest economy were exacerbated this week when a report by the Congressional Budget Office found that President Barack Obama’s 2010 health law would further dent the US workforce by reducing the incentive to work longer hours, leading to the loss of the equivalent of 2.5m full-time positions by 2024.

人们对全球最大经济体劳动参与率下滑的担忧本周加剧。美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的一份报告得出结论称,巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统2010年推动通过的医保法律将进一步削减美国劳动力人数,原因是该法降低了人们工作更长时间的动力,到2024年将失去相当于250万全职职位的劳动力。

The January jobs figures come on the heels of a strong report on US gross domestic product for the fourth quarter, showing output growth of 3.2 per cent.

1月份的就业数据发布之前,美国发布了第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)强劲增长的报告,显示产出增长3.2%。

The strong growth numbers were widely seen as validating the Fed’s decision to begin cutting back the pace of its asset purchases in December.

强劲的增长数字被广泛视为证明美联储12月开始缩减资产购买的决定合理。

The Fed continued its tapering policy last month, the final one with Ben Bernanke at the helm of the US central bank. Ms Yellen was sworn into the job this week, and will face her first big public test when she testifies before Congress next week.

美联储上月继续执行缩减政策,那是本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)执掌美国央行的最后一次会议。耶伦女士本周宣誓就职,并将在下周在国会作证时面对她的第一个重大考验。(FT)



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