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经济复苏难掩各国央行分歧

2014-02-21    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Leader_Yellen should look beyond the US

When the top economic officials from the world’s 20 leading nations gather in Sydney this weekend, they will be spared the sense of crisis that has loomed over the most recent G20 meetings. The global economy is humming along, driven by China and by the incipient recovery of parts of the rich world, most notably Britain, the US and Japan. Turmoil in the eurozone has receded, with bond yields in peripheral countries finally back near pre-crisis levels. Even the jitters across emerging markets which troubled investors earlier this year seem to have calmed down momentarily.
全球20个主要国家的最高经济官员本周末在悉尼开会时,他们将一扫前几次20国集团(G20)会议弥漫的危机感。全球经济在稳健增长,得到中国以及出现初步复苏的部分富裕国家(尤其是英国、美国和日本)的带动。欧元区的风暴已经消退,其外围成员国的债券收益率终于跌回至接近危机前的水平。即使是今年早些时候困扰投资者的笼罩新兴市场的不安,似乎也已经暂时平静下来。

To some extent, the improvement in economic conditions has been mirrored in the state of global governance. Protectionism remains a distant threat and an agreement in Bali last December has breathed new life into the World Trade Organization. Global imbalances, especially between China and the US, have also narrowed. While this was not the consequence of co-ordinated action by governments, the improvement has taken some heat off the relationship between Washington and Beijing.
从某种程度上说,经济状况的改善反映了全球治理状态。保护主义仍是一个遥远的威胁,而去年12月在巴厘岛达成的协定为世界贸易组织(WTO)注入新的生命力。全球经济失衡(尤其是中国和美国之间的失衡)也减轻了。尽管这不是各国政府协调行动的后果,但局面的好转已经在一定程度上缓和了华盛顿和北京之间的关系。

However, on one of the defining economic issue of our times – how to handle the transition to a world of higher interest rates – the relationship between global central banks remains frosty. Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has called on his colleagues at the US Federal Reserve to take into account the difficulties of the developing world when tapering their $85bn-a-month asset purchases. In her testimony to Congress last week, however, Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, turned a deaf ear to the plea by her opposite number in Mumbai, making it clear that US monetary policy will depend on economic conditions in America alone. Still, the issue is far from settled and is likely to dominate conversations in Sydney.
然而,在我们这个时代一个决定性的经济问题上——如何把握向较高利率世界的过渡——各国央行之间的关系仍然冷若冰霜。印度央行行长拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)呼吁美联储(Fed)的同行在缩减每月850亿美元的资产购买时考虑到发展中国家的困难。然而,美联储女主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)上周在国会作证时,对拉詹的恳求根本不予理会,反而直白说明美国的货币政策将仅仅取决于美国的经济状况。可是,这个问题还远远没有解决,它很可能会主导悉尼会议上的对话。

It is hard to blame Ms Yellen for her thinking. The Fed has a mandate to target rates of inflation and unemployment in the US, not in India or elsewhere. Had Ms Yellen implied otherwise during her hearing, she would have been assailed by congressmen, and with good reason. Mr Rajan would be subject to the same criticisms if he chose to serve the interests of the Americans or the Europeans rather than those of his fellow Indians.
很难责怪耶伦的想法。美联储的使命是瞄准美国(而不是印度或其他地方)的通胀和失业率目标。如果耶伦在听证会上的说法与此抵触,她将受到国会议员的抨击,而且对方将有很好的理由。如果拉詹选择服务于美国或欧洲(而不是印度)的利益。他将受到同样的批评。

Nor is the storm that hit emerging markets this year purely the consequence of the Fed’s actions. National governments and central banks are also to blame for failing to provide investors with the kind of macroeconomic stability that fund managers need to keep their money in place. Markets are increasingly differentiating between countries from the developing world. This is why Turkey, with its large current account deficit, has been battered while reforming Mexico has been spared.
今年袭击新兴市场的风暴也不纯粹是美联储行动的后果。相关国家的政府和央行也有过错,他们未能向投资者提供宏观经济稳定——而这种稳定是基金经理保持投资所需的。市场正日趋对不同发展中国家区别对待。这就是为什么经常账户赤字庞大的土耳其遭受重创,而推行改革的墨西哥躲过了风暴。

Demanding that the Fed interrupt its tightening cycle for the benefit of the wider world is unrealistic. But there are other steps Ms Yellen could take to manage the frustration of her colleagues overseas. For a start, she should continue to provide the kind of transparency which the Fed has been offering since embarking on “forward guidance”. This would enable the other monetary authorities to prepare themselves for the aftermath of future monetary shocks.
要求美联储为了世界整体利益而中断其收紧周期是不现实的。但耶伦可以采取其他一些措施来应对海外同行的失望。首先,她应该继续提供美联储启动“前瞻性指引”以来的那种透明度。这将让其他货币当局准备好迎接未来货币冲击的后果。

Ms Yellen should also make it clear that the Fed stands ready to open swap lines with the central banks of emerging markets if these were needed in future. This measure, which would ensure that the other monetary authorities have enough dollars to lend to their banking systems, was instrumental in calming markets at the height of the crisis. Repeating it in the case of fresh turmoil would be the best way to show that the Fed understands its role as the custodian of the world’s reserve currency.
耶伦还应当明确表示,未来如果有需要,美联储随时准备与新兴市场的央行开启互换额度。这项措施将确保其他货币当局有足够的美元贷给他们的银行体系,它曾在危机最严重时期帮助市场恢复平静。在动荡再现时再度采取这一措施,将是表明美联储明白其作为世界储备货币保管人的最佳方式。(FT)



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