China denies direct role in renminbi’s decline
The renminbi has suffered its steepest weekly fall against the US dollar since China reformed its exchange rate system in 2005 in a move that some economists have interpreted as a warning from the country’s central bank to currency speculators.
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The renminbi posted its seventh straight daily decline yesterday, sliding 0.02 per cent against the dollar to close at 6.1244 having hit its lowest level since early August in intraday trading.
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One popular theory among economists and investors is that the People’s Bank of China engineered the depreciation because it was concerned about huge inflows of capital in recent months and wanted to show markets that trading the currency was not a one-way bet. Analysts had been forecasting a continuation of the appreciation seen since late 2012.
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However, the Chinese central bank used its first official statement on the sudden weakening of the country’s currency to say the sell-off was a reflection of market forces and should not be over-interpreted.
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The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, an agency under the central bank, did not acknowledge any role in guiding the currency. “The recent movement of the renminbi exchange rate is the result of market players adjusting their near-term trading strategies,” it said.
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“The degree of exchange rate volatility is normal by the standards of developed and emerging markets.”
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After huge investment and trade inflows at the start of the year, there was a clear reversal of the trend in February, according to China Financial News, a central bank newspaper.
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“Risk appetite has weakened somewhat because of lower-than-expected growth data. Also, concerns about the property market have increased,” said Peng Wensheng, an economist with China International Capital Corp, the research group.
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However, the hand of the Chinese central bank, which keeps a tight grip on the exchange rate, has been evident. When the currency started falling last week it was the central bank that steadily lowered its daily reference rate, while banks and companies continued to trade it at a stronger level.
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It was only over the past two days that the market-traded exchange rate fell below the daily rate set by the central bank – a sign that Beijing has, for now, succeeded in breaking at least some of the one-way bets on appreciation.
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China faced immense capital inflows at the start of this year, according to data published on Tuesday by the central bank.
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Banks bought a net $73bn of foreign currency in the onshore market from their clients who wanted renminbi in January, the biggest monthly amount on record. Inflows have been accelerating since the middle of last year when China’s mountain of foreign exchange reserves grew by $500bn to $3.8tn.
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