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海湾产油国面临“紧日子”

2014-03-06    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Oil price break-evens

A flat world sounds like something from the dark ages. Indeed, a world of flat oil prices could, for some, be a very unpleasant place. The lack of upward movement has already had an impact on the behavior of major oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Bahrain. These nations have slowed the pace of budgetary expansion from a regional average of 14 per cent growth last year to less than 3 per cent this year.
“平坦的世界”听起来好像来自黑暗时代(欧洲历史上一段被认为愚昧落后的时期——译者注)的东西。的确,平坦的油价世界,对某些国家来说将是一个非常不愉快的前景。油价缺乏上扬趋势,已经对主要产油国的行为产生了影响,例如沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋、阿曼和巴林。这些国家放慢了预算扩张的步伐,从去年平均增长14%,降到今年的不到3%。

A report from Moody's calculates the Brent crude oil price required to generate the revenue needed to cover spending plans (the break-even price). Since 2008 spending has more than kept pace with a doubling oil price. And those spending plans are still rising, even if the oil price is not. The UN forecasts that the labor force in the region will grow at 10 per cent annually until 2020. Investment in job creation is crucial. Significant spending cuts will be hard to push through. For example, the break-even price for Oman is $100; for Bahrain it is $130. Oil is trading at $109.
穆迪(Moody's)的一份报告计算了要实现可覆盖支出计划的财政收入,布伦特原油价格(盈亏平衡价)需要有多高。2008年以来,支出增速超过翻番的油价。而这些支出计划仍在扩张,即便油价已经止步。联合国预测,海湾地区的劳动力人数将以每年10%的速度增长至2020年。创造就业机会的投资至关重要。重大的开支缩减计划将难以推行。例如,阿曼的盈亏平衡价是100美元;巴林是130美元。目前油价是109美元。

Should oil prices and regional government revenues suddenly drop, most of the Gulf nations can fall back on their sovereign wealth funds. Not Oman. Its SWF amounts to just two years of spending. In Bahrain oil accounts for only a quarter of its GDP but it is 87 per cent of revenues. It is the only Gulf economy running a budget deficit, as Bank of America points out. Since 2008 its debt to GDP ratio has more than doubled, to 61 per cent.
一旦油价和海湾各国政府的财政收入骤降,多数海湾国家还可以依赖其主权财富基金。但阿曼不在此列。其主权财富基金仅相当于两年的支出。巴林的石油产值仅占其国内生产总值(GDP)的四分之一,但贡献了财政收入的87%。美国银行(Bank of America)指出,巴林是海湾地区唯一运行预算赤字的经济体。自2008年以来,其债务与GDP的比率已增加一倍多,达61%。

For now, oil is firm. MSCI's index of Gulf country stock exchanges has risen by a tenth this year, partly on inflows into Qatar and UAE before their entry into MSCI's Emerging Markets Index. Credit default swaps on Bahrain, a potential warning indicator, have pulled back since October, suggesting credit markets are unconcerned. But if the world stays flat, the pressure will rise.
就目前而言,油价仍属坚挺。摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)海湾国家股指今年迄今已上升10%,一部分原因是卡塔尔和阿联酋即将被纳入MSCI新兴市场股指,吸引外资流入。针对巴林的信用违约互换(CDS,潜在的预警信号)的价格自去年10月以来已经下降,说明信用市场并不担心。但如果油价保持平坦,压力将会上升。(FT)



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