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2014-04-03    来源:网络    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

China's manufacturing and property sectors slid further last month, leaving Chinese leaders with what economists said is a tough choice of accepting the economic slowdown under way or stimulating the economy at the risk of exacerbating longer-term problems.

More signs of the sharp slowdown under way came Tuesday with the release of more indicators. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index, a measure of activity in the factory sector, staged a small rebound. The index edged up to 50.3, compared with February's 50.2, where any figure below 50 indicates contraction. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the figure should be close to 49.0, according to Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS.
周二公布的又一批数据显示出经济正大幅放缓的更多迹象。中国3月份官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)小幅反弹。该指数由2月份的50.2略升至50.3,指数位于50之下意味着制造业衰退。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)称,经季节性调整后,该指数应接近49.0。

The HSBC PMI, a private-sector index, fell to 48.0 in March from 48.5 in February. Overall, manufacturing--which accounts for almost half of China's economy--looks sluggish, Mr. Kuijs and other economists said.

'Domestic economic activity slowed across the board in early 2014,' said Mr. Kuijs. With excess capacity in some industries and future demand uncertain, many companies are reluctant to invest, he said.

Real estate, a vital component of China's long boom, also shows signs of strain. Average new-home prices were up 10% from a year earlier in March, data provider China Real Estate Index System said Monday. But the pace marked the third-straight month of deceleration, and prices fell year-over-year in 12 of the 100 cities covered by CREIS, up from 10 cities recorded in February.
房地产行业是中国经济长期繁荣的一个至关重要组成部分,该行业也出现乏力现象。中国房地产指数系统(China Real Estate Index System, 简称CREIS)的数据显示,3月份新房均价同比上涨10%,但连续第三个月上涨速度下降。CREIS调查覆盖的100个城市中有12个房价同比下跌,较2月份时的10个有所增加。

The weakening economy adds to concerns from economists that China is in danger of missing the government-set economic growth target for the first time in 16 years.

The government announced the target of 'about 7.5%' early last month. Only weeks later, as the gloomy statistics piled up, the State Council, the government's executive body, said it was prepared to tweak growth through limited measures--an easing of monetary policy, accelerated approval of infrastructure projects.

At a meeting with provincial leaders last week, Premier Li said downward pressure on the economy shouldn't be ignored, according to state news agency Xinhua.

'My biggest concern is that we're moving toward fiscal or monetary stimulus, and I think that's the wrong policy,' said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan.
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)中国首席经济学家朱海斌说,他最担心的是政府可能将出台财政或者货币刺激措施,而他认为这是错误的政策。

Last year, China eked out 7.7% growth, helped along by a midyear push from the government in the shape of looser monetary policy and faster approvals for infrastructure. In the slowing economy, some companies are struggling to repay debts. Last month a solar-panel manufacturer, a steelmaker and a small property developer--all industries afflicted by overcapacity--defaulted on bank loans and a bond payment, sparking fears of wider trouble in the financial system.

Fresh stimulus, however, potentially could worsen a buildup of debt and overcapacity, said Mr. Zhu and other economists. China's total debt rose to 213% of GDP last year, from 140% in 2007, according to Standard & Poor's, a rating agency.
但是朱海斌和其他经济学家认为,新的刺激措施可能导致债务和产能过剩问题进一步恶化。评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)的数据显示,2013年中国债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例达到213%,远高于2007年的140%。

Housing is a particular problem. Worried about falling prices, potential home buyers are staying on the sidelines as property developers introduce price cuts, sales agents said. Angry home buyers in cities like Changzhou and Hangzhou have recently trashed showrooms after developers introduced discounts of as much as 20% to stimulate sales of unsold units.

'Signs are mounting that the housing market in a number of cities is not just cooling but actually cracking,' said Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale.
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)经济学家姚炜说,越来越多的迹象显示,许多城市的楼市不仅仅是在降温,而是在崩盘。

The government could ease credit or reverse curbs it introduced on house purchases to cool the market when it was hot. But many of the smaller cities already show signs of being overbuilt. 'China is producing more residential property than it really needs,' said Mark Williams of Capital Economics, a research firm.
政府可以通过放松信贷或取消限购令的方式来缓解楼市压力。但是许多小城市已经出现过度建设的迹象。研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示,中国建造的住房量已经超过了实际需求。

Many economists expect a cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio, which would free up more money for lending. The central bank can also ease financing conditions by keeping interbank rates low.

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