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万州上市不宜定价太高

2014-04-17    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

WH Group

Remember the five little piggies that went to market? Anyone counting the banks employed in the Hong Kong listing of WH Group (the world’s largest pork producer), would soon run out of toes – and fingers. There are 29 of them involved, a world record. The spread of the company’s operations may have resulted in a myriad of banking relationships, but certainly not any divisional coherence.
还记得那首五个小猪去赶集的童谣(一首教小朋友掰手指数数的儿歌)吗?要想数清万州集团(WH Group,全球最大的猪肉生产商)在香港上市到底聘用了几家银行,手脚并用都不够。参与银行共有29家,创下世界纪录。该公司庞大的营运规模,也许带来了复杂的银行关系,但显然没有形成部门之间的凝聚。

The deal has a couple of private equity elements. Shuanghui, the Chinese pork giant, last year bought Smithfield of the US for $7bn including debt to form the bulk of WH Group. It has private equity investors who will sell down in the float. The company could also profit in a quick flip from the implied valuation of Smithfield. Take out WH Group’s Shuanghui original businesses plus its private logistics arm and, at the lower valuation of $15.1bn implied by its price range, Smithfield fetches $4.5bn. This is a so-so 12 per cent bump to the $4bn Shuanghui paid for the equity in September before debt. But at the high, $21.2bn, end of the deal’s wide price range, Smithfield would be worth $10.6bn.

这笔交易还有一些私募股权成分。中国猪肉加工巨头双汇(Shuanghui)去年以70亿美元(包括债务)收购了美国史密斯菲尔德食品公司(Smithfield),从而构成了万州集团的主要资产。其中的一些私募投资者将在上市过程中减持股份。基于史密斯菲尔德的隐含估值,公司有望从股权易手中快速盈利。剔除万州集团最初的双汇业务和它的民营物流业务,按该集团发行价区间的低端151亿美元计算,史密斯菲尔德值估值达到45亿美元。这比双汇去年9月支付的40亿美元收购价(不计债务)高出不算多的12%。但若以发行价区间(范围很大)的高端212亿美元计算,史密斯菲尔德有望值106亿美元。

China and the US are top two in terms of producing and consuming pork and WH Group leads at both in each country. Pork consumption globally may grow slowly but China’s low per-head consumption leaves room for faster growth. Moreover, US brands can win over Chinese consumers wary of local names following food scares. So there is potential. But first the company must prove this cross-border deal worked. A Chinese company running a US food producer, given the rules that bind that industry, makes success tricky. For that reason, those 29 banks should aim to price this towards the lower end of the range. Investors will be taking risks and deserve to be left some early upside.
在猪肉生产和消费方面,中美排名前两位,而万州集团在这两个国家都占据领军地位。全球猪肉消费也许增长缓慢,但中国人均消费基数较低,为更快增长提供了余地。更何况,美国品牌可以赢得那些因担忧食品安全而对本土品牌有戒备心理的中国消费者。所以潜力是存在的。但首先,该公司必须证明这笔跨国交易具有成效。鉴于该行业的规章约束,由中国公司来管理美国的食品生产商,要成功有难度。出于这一原因,上述29家银行应将发行价定于区间低端附近。投资者将承担风险,理所当然要有一些早期上涨空间。(FT)



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