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人民币走低将持续多久?

2014-05-29    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

RMB currency

When the renminbi began falling back in February, traders expected it to be temporary as China’s central bank fired a warning shot across the bows of naughty exporters. Many of them had been fiddling invoices to bring cash onshore and profit from a steadily rising renminbi.
人民币汇率2月开始回跌时,交易员们预计这将是暂时的,是中国央行在向不听话的出口商发出警示。许多出口商此前虚开发票,以将资金带入境内,从人民币的稳定升值中获利。

But yesterday the dollar reached Rmb6.26 – its highest level since October 2012. The weaker daily fix, around which the currency is allowed to rise or fall by 2 per cent, shows that the People’s Bank of China is still nudging the rate down. The it’s-only-temporary theory was a bet that those borrowing cheaply in dollars and using fake trade receipts to change their money into the rising – and higher yielding – renminbi would soon stop if currency appreciation reversed. That might fix China’s erratic trade data and remove an unwanted source of currency appreciation.
但昨日美元对人民币汇率达到1美元兑6.26元人民币,创下自2012年10月以来的最高值。较弱的每日指导价(汇率可围绕该指导价上下浮动2%)反映出,中国央行仍在引导汇率下行。那种认为人民币下跌不会持久的理论是在押注,假如人民币汇率掉头向下走,那么以美元廉价借贷、利用虚开贸易发票将资金兑换为不断升值(且利率更高)的人民币的做法将很快停止。这或许能解决中国贸易数据变化无常的问题,并消除导致人民币升值的一个不受欢迎的因素。

But three-plus months on and the PBoC’s shock and awe incursion looks suspiciously long-term. The slide has been steady and economic news, especially from a wobbly property market, helps justify it. Yet worries about Chinese growth preceded the renminbi’s weakness. Perhaps Beijing is struggling for a way to stop pushing the currency lower without looking as if it no longer cares. After all, a signal that policy has shifted could cause a wave of renewed bets on renminbi strength.
但3个多月过去,中国央行的威慑干预貌似带有长期性质。人民币汇率稳步下跌,而经济消息,特别是来自摇摇欲坠的房地产市场的消息,证明这种下跌是合理的。然而,人们对中国经济增长的担忧发端于人民币走弱之前。或许中国政府正在艰难地寻找一种方式,既能停止引导汇率进一步走低,又不会显得自己已不再在乎。毕竟,释放出政策已转向的信号,可能引发投资者对人民币走强的新一轮押注。

Meanwhile, China’s export rivals, namely Japan and South Korea, are losing the currency race to the bottom. The yen is up 3 per cent against the dollar this year, as is the won, while the renminbi is 3 per cent weaker. In China’s defense, some technical factors could be at play such as end of month renminbi sales by oil companies. Most analysts are still sticking to their guns, predicting a return to appreciation in the second half of the year. But questions are already being asked in Washington as to whether this is in fact a stealth operation to boost competitiveness. After all, China has a history.
与此同时,中国在出口方面的竞争对手,也就是日本和韩国,正在输掉这场汇率“向下竞赛”。日元今年对美元升值3%,韩元亦然,而人民币贬值3%。我们可以为中国辩护说,可能有一些技术因素在发挥作用,比如石油公司月底售出人民币。大多数分析师仍坚持原有的预测,即人民币今年下半年会恢复升值,但在华盛顿,已经有人在问,这是不是一项事实上的秘密行动,旨在提升竞争力。毕竟,中国在这方面是有前科的。(FT)



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