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打车应用Uber估值合理吗?

2014-06-11    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

Uber: you lookin’ at me?

How big is Uber’s potential market? Grab an envelope; preferably a big one. An average Londoner or New Yorker spends $238 on taxis each year, data from the City of New York and London’s Licensed Taxi Drivers Association show. The potential customer base is – at the very least – everyone living in a big city, or 1.5bn people. That’s $357bn in revenue. Uber, a ridesharing app that allows customers to flag down drivers with the tap of a finger, takes 20 per cent of each ride. If profit margins settle at 10 per cent, the global profit pool is about $7bn. If Uber can capture just half this market, its $17bn valuation is five times earnings. Cheap!
Uber的潜在市场有多大?拿张旧信封来,最好是大号的。纽约和伦敦的持照出租车司机协会的数据显示,一名普通伦敦人或纽约人每年打车的花费平均是238美元。潜在客户基础,往少了算,是住在大城市的每个居民,即15亿人。那意味着3570亿美元的营收。让客户点点手指就能招来出租车的拼车软件Uber,单次旅程提取20%的费用。如果利润率稳定在10%,全球的利润池约达70亿美元。如果Uber能占领这个市场的一半,其170亿美元的估值只是盈利的5倍。便宜!

Some investors are convinced. Uber’s latest funding round made it the highest valued US start-up. But there are question marks. Uber operates in 128 cities in 37 countries. Taking on regulators and the vested interests of taxi companies around the world will be expensive. In London, for example, taxi drivers are planning an anti-Uber protest on Wednesday. There is no telling how much it will cost for Uber to enter all the markets it wants.
一些投资者被说服了。Uber的最新一轮融资令它成为美国估值最高的初创企业。但疑点犹存。Uber在37个国家的128个城市运营。要对付世界各地的监管者和出租车公司既得利益将是代价高昂的。例如在伦敦,出租车司机们计划在周三举行反对Uber的抗议活动。Uber要进入它有意进驻的所有市场,成本将是多少?我们无从得知。

Competition is a problem too. As Uber paves the way, others are crowding in. Lyft recently reduced its cut of the fare to zero in a bid to grab market share. As first mover, Uber will enjoy having the most drivers and most users, making its service superior. But margins are unlikely to be high and insurance costs could rise.
竞争也是个问题。随着Uber开辟道路,别的公司也会挤进来。Lyft最近把车费提成减至零,以期抢占市场份额。作为先行企业,Uber能享有最多的司机和最多的客户,令服务更优越。但利润率不可能高,而且保险成本可能上升。

Further down the line, managing supply – getting enough Uber drivers during peak hours – may prove equally challenging. A pilot program that provides advantageous car financing to Uber drivers points toward an increasingly important part of the business: building and managing a fleet. That sounds a bit like a taxi operation. And less like something that would merit a Silicon Valley multiple.
再把眼光放远一点,供应管理——在高峰时段安排足够多的Uber司机,可能被证明是同样具有挑战性的。一个向Uber司机提供优惠汽车融资的试点计划,突显该行业日趋重要的一环:打造并管理一个车队。这听起来有点像出租车业务,而不太像配得上高市盈率的硅谷企业。(FT)



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