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负利率无助于缓解欧洲经济困境

2014-06-12    来源:网络    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

It’s an economic-policy nerd’s dream: a major economy like the Eurozone is experimenting with negative interest rates.
让欧元区这样的大经济体进行负利率实验,这是经济政策书呆子的梦想。

While it might be fun for some of us to watch policy experiments like this one unfold, the sad truth is that this move, which is aimed at encouraging banks to lend more by raising the costs of keeping money idle, doesn’t at all address the European economy’s underlying problems.
虽然对于我们中的一些人,观察这个政策实验逐渐展开很有意思,但令人沮丧的现实是,通过增加资金闲置成本以鼓励银行发放更多贷款的做法丝毫没有解决欧洲经济体的根本问题。

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, put it bluntly in a note to clients this morning, writing, “We do not believe the interest rate cuts will make a difference to the economy. Credit is not contracting because loan demand is insufficient and needs to be boosted by lowered borrowing costs. Rather, banks have not been lending because they are worried about capital adequacy.”
高频经济学(High Frequency Economics)首席经济学家卡尔o温伯格在给客户的报告中犀利地指出:“我们不认为,降息会让经济有所不同。目前不存在信贷紧缩,因为贷款需求不足,需要通过降低借贷成本刺激贷款需求。而且,银行由于担忧资本充足率,也不愿意放贷。”

In other words, the large European banks that anchor the EU economy are still hurting from the financial crisis and simply aren’t healthy enough to lend more, no matter where interest rates are. Furthermore, the economies of some countries in the union are in such poor shape that there isn’t demand for loans, and even if there were, there aren’t enough creditworthy borrowers for banks to lend to.
换句话说,那些支撑欧盟经济的欧洲大银行仍然承受着金融危机的伤痛,而且无论利率多少,它们的状况还没有好到可以扩大借贷规模。而且,欧元区中一些国家的经济状况如此糟糕,以至于根本没有贷款需求。而且,就算有,也没有信誉度足够好的借款人能让银行发放贷款。

To give an example, Spain’s unemployment is above 25%, while the Spanish economy only returned to very feeble growth late in 2013 after more that two years of contraction. There’s little chance that a small reduction in interest rates will spur lending in an economy that is this deeply depressed. Meanwhile, the Greek economy, which triggered the European debt crisis, remains a prime example of how slow economic and population growth are trapping many European economies in an as-yet-unsolved debt trap. There’s already talk of a third bailout for Greece, which proves that, regardless of the positive spin European officials put on the problem, that economy isn’t growing fast enough to reduce its debt burden. The Greek government budget cuts aimed at reducing the debt burden only makes the growth picture worse.
举例来说,西班牙失业率超过25%,而西班牙经济经历两年收缩后,2013年底才恢复到非常虚弱的增长。希望小幅降息能刺激一个深度萧条的经济体进行放贷,这样的概率很低。与此同时,引发欧债危机的希腊经济依然最具代表性:经济和人口增长缓慢正令很多欧洲经济体深陷尚未解决的债务陷阱。对希腊进行第三轮救助已在讨论中。这表明,无论欧洲政界如何粉饰这个问题,希腊经济的增长速度仍然不足以降低它的债务负担。希腊政府旨在降低债务负担的削减预算只会让增长前景进一步恶化。

As one former Treasury economist and hedge fund manager put it recently, “With the demographic profile of Europe, its leverage and forces of globalization … there’s no way for [European economies] to grow at the rate necessary for them to get out from under the debt burden they’ve built up.”
正如一位前财政部经济学家和对冲基金经理最近所讲的一样,“鉴于欧洲的人口结构、杠杆和全球化力量...(欧洲经济体)无法获得必要的增长率来摆脱累积的债务负担。”

So what would actually help turn things around?
那么,到底什么才真正有助于扭转局势?

Weinberg, for one, believes a QE-type program, in which a central bank purchases assets from banks and other financial institutions, wouldn’t hurt. “The difference between QE implemented by buying assets and these repo-based measures is that the take-up of reserves is optional for banks under ECB programs … asset purchases inject reserves into banks whether they want them or not.”
首先,温伯格认为,央行从银行和其他金融机构购买资产这样的量化宽松政策不会产生伤害。“购买资产这样的量化宽松与那些基于回购的政策区别在于,根据欧洲央行的计划,(回购政策)增加储备是可选项……而收购资产无论银行是否愿意都可以向其注入储备。”

There’s a chance that ECB President Mario Draghi will announce a QE-like program. As we know from the experience in the U.S., they’re not a silver bullet. QE might be effective at lowering interest rates, but it can’t force banks to lend when there aren’t profitable opportunities to do so.
欧洲央行行长马里奥o德拉吉有可能会宣布量化宽松式的政策。正如我们从美国的经验可以得知,这并不是什么高招。量化宽松可能对于降低利率很有效,但它不能迫使银行在没有盈利机会时进行放贷。

If, however, such a program is used to relieve pressure from government budgets, paving the way for more government spending, that could at least help prop up demand for loans and get credit flowing again. But German officials in particular loathe to finance government spending with central bank purchases, so the likelihood of this happening is still remote.
但如果这样的政策用于缓解政府预算压力,为更多政府支出扫清障碍,它至少可以提升贷款需求,同时让信贷再次流通。但德国官员特别厌恶借助通过央行购买来为政府支出提供融资,因此,这个政策实施的可能性依然很渺茫。

For the time being, the EU economy will continue to spin its wheels.
从当前来看,欧盟经济仍然将继续摇摆不定。



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