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2014-06-27    来源:网络    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

China has found itself an unwitting participant in the drama unfolding in Iraq -- though its economy may be less vulnerable than its neighbors' to the crisis there.

As the Obama administration works to build support for action against an insurgency by militant Sunni Islamists , China has said it will move some of its 10,000 citizens in Iraq away from areas it considers dangerous.

China's investments in Iraqi oil production grew so dramatically in the aftermath of the U.S.-led 2003 invasion that politicians have quipped that China, not the U.S., won the war against former dictator Saddam Hussein.
在2003年由美国牵头的联合部队入侵伊拉克后,中国在伊拉克石油生产领域的投资大幅增长,以至于政客们讽刺称,打赢推翻伊拉克前独裁者萨达姆(Saddam Hussein)战争的是中国,而不是美国。

Chinese state-owned companies have invested $10 billion in Iraq, according to the American Enterprise Institute. China's imports of Iraqi crude have doubled since 2009, according to Chinese customs data.
根据美国企业研究会(American Enterprise Institute)的数据,中国国有企业在伊拉克的投资额达到100亿美元。中国海关的数据也显示,自2009年以来,中国从伊拉克进口的原油量已增长一倍。

But Iraqi oil still represents just a small percentage of China's oil imports, and a minuscule portion of its overall energy supply. The greater risk appears to be not from a disruption of supplies from Iraq but rather that events there push global oil prices higher, raising China's overall import bill and the cost of subsidizing domestic fuel.

Prices for Brent crude have climbed more than 5% this month to above $115 per barrel, their highest level since last September.

The risk posed by higher global oil prices is even higher for China's Asian neighbors -- especially Japan, India and Indonesia -- which are more reliant on imported crude from the Middle East.

China's investments include China National Petroleum Corp.'s $5.6 billion purchase of a stake in the vast Rumaila field in southern Iraq in 2009. That same year, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. gained control of fields in Iraq's northern Kurdish region with its $7.2 billion purchase of Swiss company Addax Petroleum.
中国在伊拉克的投资包括中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)在2009年斥资56亿美元收购的伊拉克南部鲁迈拉(Rumaila)油田的部分股权。另外,中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Co., SNP, 简称:中国石化)也在同一年斥资72亿美元收购了瑞士公司Addax Petroleum,从而取得了伊拉克北部库尔德地区部分油田的控制权。

According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 13% of Iraq's oil exports went to China in 2012.
美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的最新数据显示,2012年,出口至中国的石油占在伊拉克石油出口总量的13%。

But China's exposure to Iraq is still relatively small, and its investments there represent only about 2% of China's total global investment. Customs data show that imports of Iraqi crude still comprise just one-tenth of China's total oil imports, and less than 1% of the country's overall energy needs.

That's because China remains heavily reliant on domestic, heavily polluting coal -- the very problem the investments in Iraq aimed to address. Coal accounted for more than two-thirds of China's overall energy mix as of 2011, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, or IEA.
这是因为,中国仍严重依赖国内的高污染煤炭,而这正是伊拉克投资旨在解决的问题。根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency, 简称IEA)最新数据,截至2011年,煤炭在中国能源结构中所占比例超过三分之二。

Other Asian nations have much greater exposure to international oil markets. While China imports 14% of its energy, Japan imported more than 90% in 2011, according to the IEA, relying on Saudi Arabian crude for nearly two-fifths of its energy needs. Japan doesn't import much (if any) Iraqi oil, but if Iraq worries continue to push up global oil prices it would raise Japan's energy bill and further erode its current-account surplus.

India is arguably even more vulnerable: It takes 19% of Iraq's crude exports, representing 3% of India's overall energy needs. Worse, higher oil prices stand to aggravate India's stubborn inflation and widen its current-account deficit and would raise the cost of fuel subsidies just as the government is trying to trim its budget deficit.

The most vulnerable nation in Asia, however, may be one that until 2008 was a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- Indonesia. The archipelago became a net oil importer in 2006 thanks to dwindling domestic production and weak investment in new production; imported crude now accounts for roughly 9% of Indonesia's total energy use. Like India, Indonesia would likely see its current account deficit and subsidy costs widen with higher oil prices, and inflation spike.
但最容易受到打击的可能是直到2008年之前还是石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)成员国的印度尼西亚。由于国内石油产量减少以及新产能投资疲软,印尼已在2006年成为石油净进口国,目前该国原油进口量占其能源总使用量的约9%。和印度一样,印尼的经常项目逆差和补贴成本可能也将随着油价上涨而增加,通胀也会攀升。

Despite its large investments in Iraq, then, China may find that -- compared to its neighbors at least -- it's getting off easily.

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