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双语:廉价中国一去不返该怎么办?

2015-03-26    来源:福布斯    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

双语:廉价中国一去不返该怎么办?
The End Of Cheap China. But What Next?

The global consumer goods industry is in a state of crisis. For decades, it was enough to simply look for the next cheap place to manufacture. But the old rules no longer apply. To put it simply, there isn’t another China. We have run out of low-cost countries that can replicate the scale of production taking place in China today.
全球消费品行业正处于一种危机状况之中。几十年来,该行业只需不断寻找新的低成本生产基地就可以了。但旧的规则已不再适用。简单来说,这个世界上没有另一个中国。我们已经没有可以复制中国如今这般生产规模的低成本国家。

But even as factories in the East struggle to cut costs, consumers in the West continue to look for bargains. It’s an impossible position that has put the global supply chain under huge stress.
但就在东方国家难以削减成本的时候,西方国家的消费者仍在希望买到便宜货。这是一个极难应对的状况,已经促使全球供应链处于巨大的压力之下。

Eventually prices will have to rise, but until then the global consumer goods industry finds itself in a horrible position: do you chase $0.30 of savings by producing jeans in Bangladesh or do you rethink your supply chain management and stay in China? It’s a decision that will determine job prospects for millions of factory workers.
价格最终将不得不上涨,但在那之前全球消费品行业发现自身陷入一个可怕的境地之中:你是通过在孟加拉国生产牛仔裤来争取节省0.30美元的成本,还是重新考虑自己的供应链管理而继续留在中国生产呢?这是一个将决定上千万工厂工人就业前景的决定。

I hosted a panel on global sourcing a few weeks ago in Hong Kong and was joined by executives from some of the world’s biggest lifestyle and sportswear clothing companies, as well as global manufacturers of dress shirts and bathroom accessories. Together, they operate in almost every corner of the world from Asia to Latin America to eastern Europe.
几周前,我在香港主持了一个有关全球采购的专题讨论会,出席会议的有来自世界上一些最大的生活方式和运动服装公司以及全球正装衬衫和浴室配件制造商的高管。合在一起,他们在从亚洲到拉丁美洲再到东欧等差不多全球每个角落经营制造业务。

The debate clarified some of my own observations on the changes in the industry. Four key points stand out. They also have a great deal to say about changes in the global economy and commercial opportunities more generally.
此次讨论澄清了我自己对该行业诸多变化的一些观察所得。可以归纳成四个要点。更加普遍地说,这些要点还充分说明了全球经济和商业机会方面的诸多变化。

1. Sub-Saharan Africa is big and young. But is that enough?
1.撒哈拉以南的非洲地区幅员辽阔而且人口年轻。但这就足够了吗?

It’s fashionable to talk about setting up factories in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent’s huge population is also on average eight years younger than in Asia. Wage costs are unsurprisingly low and there is plenty of cotton and leather for the clothing industry.
目前时兴谈论在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区开设工厂。而且,非洲的庞大人口平均而言比亚洲人口年轻八岁。毫不奇怪,工资成本较低,那里盛产可用于服装业的棉花和皮革。

But Asian manufacturers won’t move to Sub-Saharan Africa by themselves. The change needs to be driven by a global buyer guaranteeing multi-year contracts. The full supply chain must also be ready to invest and move with you. If not, then it’s easier to stay in China.
但亚洲制造商不会自行迁往撒哈拉以南的非洲地区。这个转变需要由一个保证多年期采购合同的全球买家来推动。整个供应链也必须乐意和你一起投资和迁移。若不是如此,那么选择留守中国反而更轻松。

2. Why aren’t we talking about India, Indonesia, and the Philippines?
2.为什么我们没有在谈论印度、印度尼西亚和菲律宾呢?

There’s a lot of talk about relocating factories from China to other parts of Asia. But which Asia? I find it striking how few sourcing executives talk about India, Indonesia, or the Philippines. And yet, together these three countries account for a huge 40 percent of Asia’s population.
许多人在谈论把工厂从中国迁往亚洲其他地区。但是,迁往亚洲的哪些地区呢?我发现异乎寻常的是,很少有采购经理谈到印度、印度尼西亚或菲律宾。然而,这三个国家合在一起在亚洲人口中的占比高达40%。

There is movement at the margin. Indonesia’s Central Java is increasingly attractive for some manufacturers. But it’s still small change. It also underscores the limited alternatives, as Cambodia and Vietnam are good options, but have a GDP smaller than a single Chinese province.
有一些小规模的迁移。对于一些制造商而言,印尼的中爪哇越来越有吸引力。但这仍是很小的变化。这也凸显了可供选择的地方有限,因为柬埔寨和越南虽都是不错的选择,但它们的国内生产总值(GDP)连中国的一个省都不如。

3. Thinking about total cost, not just price, is key to long-term success
3.长期成功的关键在于考虑总成本而不只是价格

Too often buyers still focus on the acquisition cost of a consumer good, i.e., Factory A is offering $3.50 but Factory B charges just $3.20. Yet that’s only a partial indication of the overall cost whether related to inventory management, shipping costs, or returns.
在绝大多数情况下,买家依然把注意力集中在消费品的采购成本上,换言之,甲工厂报价3.50美元,但乙工厂仅要价3.20美元。然而这只体现了总体成本(无论是在库存管理、运输还是退货等方面)的一部分。

And so leading companies are increasingly focused on finding other ways to cut costs, such as working more closely with factories to manage inventories more efficiently or consolidating their sourcing decisions, rather than leaving it up to local distributors.
因此,领先的公司越来越侧重于寻找其他途径来削减成本,比如与工厂更加密切地合作,以便更有效地管理库存或者整合他们的采购决策,而不是由各地经销商作决定。

4. It’s the East’s shoppers that will increasingly matter
4.将会越来越重要的是东方国家的消费者

Much of this debate focuses on products sold in the West. Yet many of the world’s biggest brands are increasingly selling to the East. So why move your factory from China to Ethiopia, for instance, if it’s customers in Beijing or Shanghai buying your clothes?
此次讨论主要侧重于在西方国家销售的产品。然而许多全球最大的品牌日益将产品销往东方国家。所以,如果购买贵公司服装的顾客是在北京或上海,那么为什么要把你的工厂从中国迁往——比如说——埃塞俄比亚呢?

Growing domestic markets are also a reason for manufacturers to stick closer to home rather than venture abroad. That’s especially true for smaller manufacturers without the capital or relationships necessary to make the jump into foreign markets.
不断增长的国内市场也是制造商留在本土附近地区而非冒险迁往国外的一个原因。对于没有投身国外市场所需资金或者关系的规模较小的制造商而言,情况尤其如此。

replicate vt. 复制;折叠

horrible adj. 可怕的;极讨厌的

(forbeschina.com)



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