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双语:金价终于要反弹了?

2015-03-31    来源:fortune    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

双语:金价终于要反弹了?

在投资界,黄金可谓争议最大的主题之一。

The shiny metal, which for centuries was the basis of the global monetary system, is beloved particularly by investors whose political beliefs tilt libertarian. These are the sort of people who are convinced of the incompetence of political leaders and central banks that now run a monetary system based on floating exchange rates rather than the value of hard metals.
数百年来,黄金曾经一度作为全球货币体系的基础,政治上倾向自由派的投资者尤其青睐它。在此类人士看来,许多政府领导人和央行都是不称职的,他们如今把货币体系的基础建立在了浮动汇率制而非硬金属的价值之上。

Gold enthusiasts had their moment in the sun during the 2000s, when the combination of rising deficits and a sharply falling dollar helped give the precious metal its best stretch since the inflation-racked 1970s and 1980s. The financial crisis only increased gold’s appeal, when it seemed like governments around the globe might not be able to save their banking systems from total collapse. A few years later, the European debt crisis added even more weight to the notion that the price of gold could only go in one direction: up.
黄金狂热者在本世纪头10年可谓春风得意,当时,赤字上升加之美元大幅贬值,黄金迎来了自通胀严重的上世纪七八十年代以来的最好时期。金融危机进一步增加了黄金的吸引力,当时,全球政府看似都无力阻止银行系统彻底崩溃。几年后,欧债危机进一步强化了这一观点,即黄金价格只可能继续上涨。

Since gold’s peek in the fall of 2011, though, it’s been in a free-fall, confounding the gold-bug community.
然而,令金本位者困惑不解的是,金价于2011年秋季达到峰值后,就一路下跌到现在。

As Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management points out, none of the arguments put forward by the gold-bug community in recent months have actually panned out:
Ritholtz财富管理公司的巴里•里萨兹指出,金本位者最近几个月提出的(金价将上涨)论断没有一条灵验。

The ballot proposal requiring the Swiss National Bank to hold at least 20 percent of its 520 billion franc ($523 billion) balance sheet in gold was rejected by Swiss voters. Another tale: India was going to cut its import duty on gold, leading to soaring demand. But India decided to maintain the duty. The latest bout of wishful thinking was that a gold version of the new Apple watch would consume “up to 756 metric tonnes of gold per year . . . this equates to roughly a third of gold’s total annual global mine supply,” according to a company called Goldcore . . . that fantasy was laughable on its face.
瑞士选民否决了要求瑞士央行——瑞士国家银行以黄金形式持有至少20%资产(该行资产总额为5200亿瑞士法郎)的提案。另一个传言是,印度将削减黄金进口关税,黄金需求将猛增,但印度最终决定维持关税不变。最新的臆断是,一家名为Goldcore的公司声称,新推出的黄金版苹果手表,每年将消耗“高达756公吨黄金……约相当于全球黄金年开采量的三分之一”。这简直荒唐到可笑了

Instead, the continuing strengthening of the dollar—a trend bolstered by the end of QE and the apparent strengthening of the U.S. economy—has continued to force gold prices downward. But the bottom must come at some point. Gold, after all, isn’t some pumped-up penny stock. There will always be strong and consistent demand for the metal as jewelry, especially in a world where nations like China and India have rapidly growing affluent classes. Meanwhile, central banks across the world maintain large holdings of the metal, and the idea that gold is a hedge against catastrophe isn’t going away anytime soon.
实际情况恰恰相反,随着美国退出量化宽松,加之美国经济明显好转,美元持续走高,金价因此不断下跌。但是,金价总有一天会触底。而黄金毕竟不同于那些外强中干的低价股。黄金饰品的需求将持续强劲,特别是随着中国和印度的富裕阶层不断壮大。与此同时,世界各国央行仍持有大量黄金,而且黄金作为避险工具的观念短期内也不会消失。

Analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research argues that gold may have already reached its bottom. His first point is from the “technical analysis” school, which looks at historical patterns in stock charts to predict future movements. Gold has nearly fallen 50% from its 2011 peek, a critical level for believers in technical analysis, when stocks and commodities often rebound.
比安科研究公司分析师吉姆•比安科提出,金价可能已经触底。他的观点首先建立在“技术分析”上,即通过观察股票或期货走势图,以历史走势来预测未来走向。较之2011年的峰值,金价已下跌近50%,这是一个临界点,技术分析派人士认为,股票和大宗商品在达到该临界点时,通常会触底反弹。

Second, Bianco points out that if you look at Gold ETF data, much of the dumb money that jumped on the gold bandwagon during the frantic post-crisis years has left. Gold’s big post-crisis surge was driven in part by ETFs that allowed average investors to get in on gold’s rise easily and inexpensively. But today, the gold holdings of ETFs are lower than they were in 2010, before much of gold’s crisis-driven ascent.
其次,比安科指出,黄金交易所交易基金(Gold ETF)的数据显示,金融危机后几年跟风投资黄金的资金眼下大都已经离场。那几年金价大涨,部分原因在于ETF使普通投资者无需太大本钱,就能轻轻松松的分享金价上涨。如今,ETF所持有的黄金数量低于2010年的水平,而金融危机后的金价攀升基本发生在2010年后。

Bianco also points out that money managers overall have not been as down on gold in the past 10 years than they are today, as measured by net long positions in the metal. When the rest of the crowd doubts an investment, it’s often the smartest time to buy.
比安科还指出,就黄金的净多头仓位来看,基金经理们如今纷纷对黄金看跌,其悲观程度为过去10年所未见。而当其它人都怀疑一项投资时,往往是买入的大好时机。

For the average investor, it makes sense to steer clear of large investments in gold. The precious metal isn’t going to replace the fiat monetary system anytime soon, nor does it look like the wave of government defaults and hyperinflation that gold bugs were calling for in the months immediately following the financial crisis and European debt crisis will be upon us any time soon.
对普通投资者而言,要避免大举投资黄金。短期内,黄金不会取代法定货币体系,在金融危机和欧洲债务危机爆发后,金本位者曾声称将出现大量政府违约以及恶性通货膨胀,但如今看来,上述情况短期内也不会发生。

But gold will bottom out at some point, be it at $1,100 per ounce or $500 per ounce. And the savvy—or just plain lucky—professional investor who picks the bottom accurately, and at the right time, will stand to clean up on this trade.
不过,金价总有一天会触底,不论最低价是每盎司1100美元还是每盎司500美元。而精明——或走运——的专业投资者,将适时抄底,从中大赚一笔。(财富中文网)



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