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印度央行应该向中国看齐吗

2015-06-04    来源:forbes    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

印度央行应该向中国看齐吗

Market Wants India's Central Banker To Think More Like China's

Capitalism? What’s that? The market wants certainty, and these days that comes with central banks telling them they are going to pump asset prices and put a nice oak floor under neath them. What they heck, they’ll even throw in a medallion inlay to make it look really nice!
资本主义?那是什么?市场需要确定性,而眼下,所谓的确定性这就要央行站出来表态,说他们打算推高资产价格,并且给予一个坚实的托底保障。管他呢,他们甚至会附带镶嵌一枚大勋章,让市场看起来真的很美好!

India’s Reserve Bank of India Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan will present his second bimonthly monetary policy today. The unknown in India this morning is whether Rajan will opt for keeping his pressure on inflation, or will he cut rates? The market is betting on a rate cut, if not outright demanding it.
印度储备银行(即印度央行)行长拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)今天将提出他的第二份两月一次的货币政策声明。而大家不知道的是,拉詹到底是会选择继续压制通胀,还是会降息?市场押注他会降息,甚至可能直接要求降息。

Other emerging markets in the neighborhood are doing it, so why not Rajan?
邻近地区的其他新兴市场国家都在这样做,凭什么拉詹不这样做?

“This is the time to ‘Look East’,” an editorial in India’s Economic Times says. Rajan should take a page from China’s playbook. Afterall, China’s equities have been relatively flat, especially its H-shares traded on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Not anymore. Now they’re on the upswing. Meanwhile, India is undperforming the MSCI MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The Sensex is up only 1.2% this year in rupees.
《印度经济时报》上的一篇社论说:“现在是时候‘向东看’了。”拉詹应该借鉴中国的策略。别忘了,中国股市在之前的很长一段时间都相对不景气,港交所的H股尤其如此。现在不是了。如今中国股市正在高歌猛进。与此同时,印度股市却跑输摩根斯坦利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)。按卢比计算,印度孟买敏感指数今年仅上涨了1.2%。

“Given the small, very small, window of opportunity open before the U.S. Fed raises rates…what could be better than for Rajan to follow the advice of his favorite poet, Rudyard Kipling, and ‘fill the unforgiving minute with 60 seconds’ worth of distance run’? Act now,” the ET op-ed says.
《印度经济时报》的那篇评论文章说:“鉴于在美联储加息前敞开的机会之窗很小很小……有什么能比拉詹听从他最喜爱的诗人拉迪亚德·吉卜林(Rudyard Kipling)的建议——‘把每一分钟宝贵的光阴化作六十秒的奋斗’还要好呢?现在就行动吧。”

Rajan is not a fan of monetary stimulus. Moreover, it is not fair to compare India’s equity market to China’s. Indian stocks went through the roof starting in September 2013 when Rajan took over the RBI up until May 2014 when Narendra Modi became the new prime minister. The Sensex is up over 49.5% since Sept. 2013 in rupees. The dollar denominated Wisdom Tree India (EPI) is up 59%. The iShares FTSE China (FXI) as done well, but that’s only been the case since March, when the People’s Bank of China Bank of China embarked on a mini-QE program. FXI is up 40.3%. Rajan and Modi have got it beat.
拉詹一项不太主张施行货币刺激政策。此外,将印度股市与中国股市相比并不公平。从2013年9月拉詹接任印度央行行长开始,一直到2014年5月纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)成为新任总理,印度股市实现了大幅上涨。自2013年9月以来,按照卢比计算,孟买敏感指数上涨了愈49.5%。以美元计价的智慧树印度收益基金(WisdomTree India Earnings Fund)同期上涨了59%。安硕富时中国指数基金(iShares FTSE China)表现很好,但那只是在今年3月之后才是如此,当时中国央行推出一项迷你型量化宽松计划。安硕富时中国指数基金已经上涨了40.3%。拉詹和莫迪被击败了。

The market has taken a breather from India these days not because its central bank isn’t providing any monetary stimulus, but because investors are waiting to see if Modi can deliver on his key reforms outlined in his recent budget.
如今印度市场暂做休息,不是因为印度央行没有提供任何货币刺激政策,而是因为投资者都在等着看莫迪是否会兑现他在最近的预算报告中所提出的关键改革承诺。

Some Indian companies have expressed signs of impatience. Those complaints have not fallen on deaf ears. Japanese brokerage Nomura Securities said Monday that it sees no chance of any accelerated reform process due to political difficulties at the state level. Indian politicians rule by consensus. That’s a lot different from how China rules.
一些印度公司已经表现出不耐烦的迹象。这些抱怨没有被置若罔闻。日本券商野村证券周一表示,由于在邦一级政府面临政治阻力,它认为印度不可能会加快任何改革进程。印度政坛讲究以大多数人的意见为基础,这与中国的统治模式完全不同。

“We expect the pace of reforms to be gradual, given the political hurdles around big bang reforms,” Nomura said in a note yesterday.
野村证券昨天在一份报告中指出:“考虑到重大改革面临政治障碍,我们预计改革步伐将会是渐进的。”

The RBI cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points each on January 15 and March 4.
今年1月15日和3月4日,印度央行曾经先后各降息25个基点。

(forbeschina)



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