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双语:中国的涨薪潮开始消退

2016-03-24    来源:iyuba    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

双语:中国的涨薪潮开始消退

Rapid wage gains in China that began after the 2009 global financial crisis have begun to fade as the economy slows, and that could create problems for officials trying to boost domestic consumption.

中国涨薪潮开始于2009年全球性金融危机之后,而随着中国经济的放缓,涨薪潮也开始消退,这将给试图提升国内消费的中国政府制造了一些问题。
 
Income increases for migrant workers will fall below 7 percent this year, down from a 7.2 percent rise in 2015, according to nine of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month. The findings follow an announcement by Guangdong province, China’s biggest exporter and one of the biggest destinations for rural job seekers, that it will freeze minimum wages for two years.

根据彭博社本月采访的12个经济学家中的其中9名,今年,农民工的工资增速将会低于7%,去年的增速是7.2%。广东省,这个中国最大出口省份以及农民工流入地之一,近日发布了一则声明称,两年内将不再提高最低工资水平。
 
A slower rise in labor costs could make Chinese companies more competitive while also helping employers weather structural reforms that Communist Party leaders pledge will address excess capacity in the world’s No. 2 economy. Authorities under the previous administration had championed wage gains as a way to stoke domestic demand.
劳动力成本的缓慢上升,能够一定程度上增加中国公司的竞争力,以及帮助企业度过中共为给这个全球第二大经济体去产能而实施的结构调整。中国的上届政府曾经通过提升工资,来扩大国内需求。
 
"China’s fairly pragmatic policy makers have recognized the limits of things like minimum wage increases," said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. "You cannot expect wage growth to continue if business conditions and profit developments are weaker."

位于香港的牛津经济研究院的首席经济学家LouisKuijs称,务实的中国政策制定者已经意识到像提高最低工资水平这类事情的缺陷,如果企业的经济状况以及利润提升越来越弱,你不能指望工资还能继续上涨。
 
Softer Spending
疲软的消费

Consumers also won’t spend as freely, according to the survey. Six economists said they see average disposable income rising 6.5 to 6.9 percent this year, compared with a 7.4 percent increase in 2015. Four forecast a rise of 7 percent to 7.4 percent.
根据调查,消费者花钱也没那么随心所欲了。六名经济学家称,今年的人均可支配所得将上升6.5%到6.9%,去年则上升了7.4%。另外4名经济学家则预测上升7%到7.4%。
 
Jobs and income were among the top agenda items for the Chinese congress meeting earlier this month in Beijing and again this week on the southern island of Hainan, where policy makers are gathering for their annual Boao Forum. Premier Li Keqiang set a target for creating 10 million jobs this year, the same goal as the last two years.
在这个月早些时候召开的全国人民代表大会年度例会中,以及这个星期,在中国南部岛屿海南省举行的、政策制定者都参与的博鳌论坛中,就业以及工资都是其中的重要议题。李克强总理给今年定下的目标是,增加1000万就业机会,和前两年制定的目标相同。
 
Even with smaller pay rises for workers, economists still forecast an increase in joblessness in China this year. The urban unemployment rate will rise to 5.3 percent to 5.5 percent in 2016, up from about 5.1 percent last year, seven out of 12 economists said in a Bloomberg survey.
尽管工资增速下降,经济学家们仍然预测中国今年的失业率将会增加。彭博社采访的12名经济学家中有7名预测,城镇失业率今年将会增加到5.3%到5.5%,去年的城镇失业率为5.1%。
 
Fewer Workers
不断减少的工人

The projected weakening of the job market is notable because China has a shrinking labor force, something that otherwise would typically lead to companies having to pay more to attract the workers they need.
由于中国劳动力的缩减,公司以后就需要提高薪酬以吸引人才,中国就业市场前景黯淡。
 
Wage growth has been held down by salary freezes, most recently in Guangdong, China’s most populous province with 107 million people and a $1.1 trillion economy. The provincial government said last month it will freeze the minimum wage for two years to help companies cut labor costs. The three provinces in the northeast rust belt, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, haven’t raised their minimum wages since 2013.
最近在广东省,这个有1.07亿居民的人口大省以及1.1亿经济体量的经济大省,工资涨幅由于工资不再上涨而受到拖累。而在东北三省黑龙江、吉林、大连,这些老工业基地从2013年后,就再也没提升过他们的最低工资。
 
Seven economists said migrant worker wage growth will decelerate to 6.5 to 6.9 percent this year, while two project that it will fall below 6.5 percent.
7名经济学家称,农民工的工资增速将会降低到6.5%到6.9%,而还有2名经济学家预测,增速将会下降到6.5%。
 
Average monthly wages for China’s 277 million migrant workers rose 7.4 percent last year to 3,072 yuan ($473), slower than the 9.8 percent gain in 2014 and 13.9 percent in 2013, National Bureau of Statistics data show. The most recent data for wages for all Chinese workers show they grew 9.5 percent in 2014, the slowest pace since at least 2000.
中国国家统计局的数据显示,中国2.77亿农民工的平均月工资去年已经上升了7.4%,达到3072元人民币,低于2014年的9.8%以及2013年的13.9%。而最新数据显示,所有城镇就业人员2014年工资增速为9.5%,是自2000年以来增速最慢的一年。
 
"Subdued exports and construction will keep depressing migrant worker wages," said Harrison Hu, Chief Greater China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Singapore. "Lowering corporate costs is a priority now."
苏格兰皇家银行中国区首席经济学家哈里森.胡表示,显著放缓的出口和建筑业将会对农民工的工资产生巨大影响,而且降低公司成本现在是最重要的事情。
 
Five out of the 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, including Hu, said income growth will be less crucial for policy makers, while the other seven said boosting wages will remain a priority for officials.
12名彭博社采访的经济学家中有5人,包括哈里森都认为,对于政策制定者来说,工资的增减并不那么重要,而另外7人认为,提升工资仍然是中国政府的重要任务。
 
"The Chinese government faces a difficult balancing act," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS in Singapore. "Does it allow rapid wages growth to support consumption-led GDP growth or prevent buoyant wages growth from steadily eroding export competitiveness and fueling rising labor costs?”

IHS首席亚太经济学家Rajiv Biswas认为,中国政府现在正面临艰难的平衡局面,是允许工资快速上涨支持内需为导向的GDP,还是防止不断上涨的工资增速去逐渐破坏出口竞争力和不断上涨的劳动力成本。



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