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互联网诞生25周年 专家预测网络技术未来

2014-03-12    来源:voanews    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

As the Internet celebrates its 25th anniversary, a group of experts is trying to imagine how technology will influence our lives 10 years down the road.
在互联网诞生25周年之际,一组专家试图想象科技如何影响我们今后十年的生活。

The report, which was done by the Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center, combines the “imaginings” of some 1,500 experts.
由皮尤研究中心(the Pew Research Center)和伊隆大学(Elon University)互联网创想中心(Imagining the Internet Center)共同完成的这项报告汇集了大约1500名专家的“想象”。

“It is striking how much consensus there is among these experts on what will change, and equally striking how varied their answers are when they are asked how those changes will impact and influence users in good and bad ways,” said Elon University Professor Janna Anderson, a primary author of the report.
报告的主要执笔人、伊隆大学教授乔安娜·安德森说:“令人印象深刻的是,专家们在互联网今后有哪些变化问题上的观点竟然如此的一致。而当他们被问到这些变化对用户有什么好的和坏的影响时,他们的答案又是如此多样,这同样令人印象深刻。”

One recurring theme among the experts was the notion that the Internet may become less visible in daily life, becoming, instead, “like electricity.”
专家们反复提到的一个主题是,互联网在日常生活中可能变得既不那么显眼,又缺其不可,就“和电一样”。

This, the report said, could “produce vastly greater human and machine connectivity that will change everything from personal interactions to the decisions made by governments around the world.”
报告认为,这可能会“极大地增加人类与机器的连接,由此将改变一切,包括人与人之间的互动和世界各国政府的决策。”

Many of the predictions foreshadow positive developments, but there are certainly some concerns, according to the experts.
许多的预测都反应了积极的展望,不过专家们认为,当然也存在某些担心。

Pew and Elon have been doing similar surveys since 2004, and Anderson said it was interesting to see how excitement over technology has become tempered over that time.
2004年以来,皮尤研究中心和伊隆大学一直在做类似的问卷调查。安德森说,有趣的是,人们看到,随着时间的推移,科技带来的兴奋感有所降温。

She said in 2004, most experts talked about how technological advancement was going to be great.
她说,在2004年,多数专家谈论的是技术进步将会如何的了不起。

“We hear enthusiasm now, but also more about the negative, more so than ever before,” she said. “People are starting to realize that the power of communication can be used by anyone, good or bad.”
“现在我们还能听到这种激情,”安德森说,“但负面观点之多,超过了以往。人们开始意识到,信息交流可以被任何人利用,包括好人,也包括坏人。”

On the hopeful side, the increasing reach of the Internet will enhance global connectivity, which could foster “more positive relationships among societies,” according to the report.
从积极面看,报告认为,从长远看,互联网涉及范围的日益扩大将加强全球的联系,这种趋势可能促进“社群之间更加积极的关系。”

The report also said the so-called Internet of Things, when all kinds of devices from coffee makers to toothbrushes will be connected to the web, big data and artificial intelligence “will make people more aware of their world and their own behavior.”
报告还说,所谓的“物联网”(Internet of Things)将把咖啡机和牙刷之类的物件都连到网上,“物联网”、大数据和人工智能“会让人们更加了解他们的世界和他们自身的行为。”

“Devices will more and more have their own patterns of communication, their own ‘social networks,’ which they use to share and aggregate information, and undertake automatic control and activation,” said David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in a statement. “More and more, humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices. The Internet (and computer-mediated communication in general) will become more pervasive but less explicit and visible. It will, to some extent, blend into the background of all we do.”
麻省理工学院(MIT)计算机和人工智能实验室资深研究人员戴维·克拉克说:“这些物件越来越具备它们自己的通讯形式,它们自己的‘社交网络’,通过这个系统分享和聚合信息,可以自动控制和激活。”他说,人类世界将越来越多地通过一组协同运转的装置来做决策,互联网以及其它由计算机调节的通讯系统将会无处不在,同时也变得越来越润物细无声,不再那么显眼,进入幕后操作人们所做的一切事情。

Experts also see increased use of augmented reality and wearable devices which can monitor aspects of your daily life, giving a user feedback to improve, for example, personal health.
专家们还认为,随着“增强现实” (augmented reality)技术以及可以穿戴在身的日常生活监测装置越来越广泛的应用,用户可以获得信息反馈,从而改善生活,包括个人健康。

Pew and Elon will soon be publishing another report on wearables.
Lastly, and more of a mixed bag, the experts also saw the potential for more “Arab Spring” type uprisings, some peaceful and some not.
皮尤中心和伊隆大学不久将发布另外一份有关可穿戴式装置的报告。

On the negative side, the experts cautioned that the increasing divides between haves and have-nots that could result in violence.
在负面影响方面,专家们提醒说,有的人拥有技术,有的人则没有,贫富差距的扩大,可能会导致暴力。

In 10 years, experts said the net will continue to be plagued by “abuses and abusers” involved in pornography, crime and bullying, but that these people will “evolve to scale,” with “new capacity to make life miserable for others.”
专家们说,十年后,网络将继续受到涉及色情、犯罪和欺负人等“滥用和滥用者”的困扰,而这些滥用者将“逐渐发展壮大”,通过“新的能力让别人的生活变得更加糟糕。”

The report also warned that Internet freedom could face threats from governments and corporations “as they invoke security and cultural norms.”
报告还警告说,网络自由面临来自政府和企业的威胁,他们以安全和文化规范为借口控制网络。

“I hope there will be greater openness, more democratic participation, less centralized control, and greater freedom,” said Marc Rotenberg, president of the Electronic Privacy Information Center. “But there is nothing predetermined about that outcome. Economic and political forces in the United States are pulling in the opposite direction. So, we are left with a central challenge: will the Internet of 2025 be—a network of freedom and opportunity or the infrastructure of social control?”
电子隐私信息中心(Electronic Privacy Information Center)总裁马克·罗滕伯格说:“我希望网络更加开放,有更多的民主参与,更少的中央控制和更大的自由。但是,谁也不能预设究竟会有什么样的结果。美国的各种经济和政治力量正在做着彼此相反的运动。因此,我们面临的重要挑战是,2025年的互联网究竟将是自由和充满机会的,还是成为控制社会的基础手段?”

Finally, the report said privacy will continue to erode and that it “will be something only the upscale will enjoy.”
报告最后说,个人隐私将继续受到侵蚀,并且只有高端人群才能享有。

“Over the past decade, it’s the people who have power and control that can protect their privacy,” said Anderson. “The rich will be able to find ways to keep their data private.”
安德森说:“过去十年,能够保护自己隐私的人是那些有权和有控制手段的人。富人将有能力保住他们个人数据的隐秘性。”

Of course, predictions are fraught with perils, but Anderson researched thousands of predictions made in the 1990s, saying many of them were “incredibly prescient” and “right on the mark.”
当然,预言未来是件危险的事。不过,安德森研究了1990年代的数千项预测,她说,很多预测有“令人难以置信的先见之明”,并且“准确到位”。(voanews)



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