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苹果股价为什么能突破100美元

2014-08-25    来源:财富网    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

苹果公司的股价在本周二报收于100.53美元,创下近来新高。让我们硬着头皮地来对其成因一探究竟。

Don’t you hate these “why Apple shares did such and such” headlines?
看到“为何苹果公司(Apple)的股票会这样或那样”之类的标题,你会不会有点烦?

I know I do. They’re too often a journalistic ploy designed to make reporters look smarter than they are by linking two events that rarely have a causal relationship: The behavior of Apple’s shares on any particular day and … you name it … a rumor out of Asia, one analyst’s opinion, a piece of market data of dubious provenance.
我就会。这类标题往往是记者们的一种新闻手法,用来假扮聪慧深刻,具体做法就是将基本没有什么因果关系的两件事硬扯在一起,比如苹果公司的股价在某一天的涨跌,和随便一则你能想到的自亚洲流出的传言,某位分析师的观点,某份来源不明的市场数据等等。

But when Apple hits a new all-time high, especially after the shellacking it took in 2013, the mind craves reasons. Why did this happen?
但当苹果公司的股价创下近来新高,尤其是在2013年的惨跌之后,人们总要探究其中的原因。为什么会这样呢?

The answer that cuts closest to the bone is that there is more money trying to get into the stock than out. Some of that is institutional investment, coming back to Apple after 2013’s panicked flight. Some of that is Apple cash, buying and retiring its own shares at a scale never before seen in the history of capitalism. Some of it — but not much — is retail investment by folks like you and me. Well, not me. But you know what I mean.
最本质性的原因就是试图买入苹果股票的资金要比想卖出的多。一部分是机构投资,他们把2013年时出于恐慌而撤走的资金再次注入了苹果公司的股票。一部分是苹果公司自身所持有的现金,用于回购并作废公司的一部分股票,其规模在整个资本主义的历史上前所未有。还有一部分,但并不多,是像你我一样的散户投资。好吧,我不是。但你明白我的意思。

Step back a bit, and you can see that there are solid business reasons for the stock’s momentum to have changed. Apple’s last two earnings reports showed modest positive growth, after several quarters of the other kind. They also showed improved profit margins, heavy capital investment and impressive growth in iOS ecosystem metrics. Revenue from the slow-and-steady line item called iTunes/Software/Services has nearly caught up to Mac sales.
退一步来看,你应该也知道,股市增长势头的改变存在着充分的商业因素。苹果公司最近的两份营收报告显示,在几个财季的亏损后,公司的销售业绩实现了温和的正增长。报告中还表明,公司的利润率有所上升,资本投入不菲,iOS生态系统的指标增长惊人。iTunes/软件/服务这条增长缓慢但稳定的产品线的收益几乎追平了Mac电脑。

Meanwhile, Apple has become a dividend stock, which makes it attractive to a new class of less speculative investors. It currently yields an annual dividend of 2.1% — a rate that swells to an effective 8.5%, according to Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, when you factor in a 9% reduction in the number of outstanding shares.
与此同时,苹果公司的股票已经成了一只股息股,更加吸引那些投机性较低的新投资者。目前其年度股息率为2.1%——据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的凯蒂•休伯蒂表示,如果将苹果股票的流通股股数减少了9%这一因素考虑在内,其年度股息率便会暴增至十分可观的8.5%。

Take another step back, to the cliff edge of speculation, and you start to see the line-up of unannounced products that dominate the daily tech headlines: iPhones, iWatches, iWallets, iTVs, iPatents. Some of these things may be coming soon, some may never see the light of day.
再退一步,来看看那些漫天飞舞的臆测,你会发现每天的科技新闻头版上报道的净是一些官方尚未发布的产品——新iPhone、iWatch、iWallet、iTV、iPatents。其中有一些产品可能很快就会问世,还有一些则可能永远不会出现。

Current speculation centers on a rumored Sept. 9 event where Apple may or may not unveil one or more larger-screen iPhones. Several forecasts suggest that such a phone from Apple might generate record-breaking sales.
目前坊间臆测都集中在传闻中苹果公司将于9月9日举办的一场发布会上,届时苹果会不会发布一款或多款屏幕尺寸更大的iPhone?有些预测认为,这种规格的苹果手机有可能创下前所未有的销售佳绩。

The iPhone is already responsible for more than half of Apple’s quarterly revenue, so you can see why Wall Street’s interest is keen.
iPhone在苹果公司的季度营收中占据了半数以上的份额,所以也不难解释为什么华尔街会对苹果的股票表现出如此之大的兴趣。

I have no reason to doubt the Sept. 9 date. Apple hasn’t said anything one way or the other, and I certainly haven’t received an invitation.
我觉得所谓的9月9日的活动纯属无稽之谈。苹果公司没有就此发表过任何一种可能性的声明,我显然也没有收到任何活动邀请。

But the company often has a surprise or two up its sleeve. And I expect that anybody who really knows what’s coming has either signed a nondisclosure agreement or is prohibited from trading on the news.
但是苹果公司经常会藏起那么一两手,留作最后的惊喜。我希望那些真正了解实情的人要么是签订了保密协议,要么就是被禁止向媒体爆料。

That’s about as much as I know. What have you heard?
以上就是我所知道的一切。你们都听到了些什么消息?

UPDATE: Reader Fred Stein writes:
更新:读者弗雷德•斯坦因写道:

What have I heard? Nothing new. But here’s a list of profit catalysts already announced:
我都听说了什么?没啥新鲜的。不过我这里有一份清单,列出了官方目前已公布过的未来热点:

1) Healthkit 移动应用平台;

2) Homekit 智能家居平台;

3) Swift, METAL, and 64bit ARM — which will enable higher priced Apps (30% to Apple) and iOS stickiness for years
3)Swift语言、METAL技术和64位ARM处理器:这些将在今年带来定价更高的应用程序(其中有30%将支付给苹果公司)和更高的iOS系统用户黏度;

4) IBM alliance — easy money for years
4)与IBM公司的合作:接下来的几年里将可轻松创收;

5) 13 megapixel camera — A catch-up issue and important for digital telephoto.
5)1,300万像素的摄像头:用来赶上业内标准潮流,这个配件对数字长焦摄影至关重要。(财富中文网)



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