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译文精选:伊斯兰王权的衰亡之路

2015-05-22    来源:yeeyan.org    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

与"伊斯兰国"的背水一战: 伊斯兰王权的衰亡之路
The war against Islamic State

【译文精选】

WHEN the jihadists of Islamic State (IS) seized Mosul and the Iraqi army fled last June, they became the world’s most dangerous terrorist organisation. Sweeping out of Syria and north-western Iraq, they stormed southward, and came close to taking Baghdad. They murdered male prisoners in gory videos and enslaved female ones. Groups from Nigeria to Libya and Afghanistan pledged allegiance to them. Devotees attacked innocent civilians in Western cities; this week at least 19 people were killed in an assault on tourists in Tunisia (though the culprits are unknown). The IS threat has pushed together unlikely allies: in Iraq America provides the air power while Iran musters the ground forces.
从“伊斯兰国”圣战主义者去年六月占领了摩苏尔,伊拉克军队落荒而逃的那一刻起,他们就成为了世界上最危险的恐怖主义组织。自叙利亚和伊拉克西北部挥师南下,步步紧逼,巴格达地区亦一度命悬一线。女囚沦为奴隶,男囚则惨遭杀害,其惨状还被录成视频公之于众。尼日加拉、利比亚及阿富汗多个集团组织先后发表声明为其效忠。在一些西方城市,狂热分子则对无辜的百姓发起了攻击,本周发生的一起突尼斯游客袭击事件至少造成了十九人死亡(虽然并未证实袭击者身份)。“伊斯兰国”的步步紧逼之下,关系复杂微妙的美国、伊拉克和伊朗也统一了战线:美国为伊拉克提供空军力量,而伊朗则派遣地面部队入驻。

As our briefing explains (see article), IS differs from jihadist groups that have gone before, including its parent, al-Qaeda. It is uniquely brutal in its treatment of foes and uniquely competent as a propagandist. But what most sets it apart is its claim to have restored the Islamic caliphate. The revival of a single state to rule over all Muslims, dating to Islam’s earliest days and abolished in 1924 by modern Turkey after the fall of the Ottoman empire, was meant to eradicate decades of supposed humiliation by outsiders and Arab rulers who presided over the decline of flourishing Arab societies.
正如我刊在摘要板块所述(详见该文),“伊斯兰国”与以往的圣战组织,包括其源起基地组织有所不同。其处置对手的方式虽是残暴至极,蛊惑人心的手法却是高明绝顶。它最鲜明的特点是其重振伊斯兰雄风的狂言,即复兴伊斯兰王国,一统穆斯林世界,恢复早年伊斯兰王国统治普天之下所有伊斯兰教徒的体制,这种体制在伊斯兰世界创建之初曾辉煌一时,奥斯曼帝国瓦解后则于1924年被新成立的土耳其共和国废止。“伊斯兰国”支持者的复国运动旨在彻底摆脱其十多年来经受的耻辱,圣战分子自认为受到的屈辱有两个来源:一个来源是外在的,即外来民族的涌入和异教的传播;另一个是内在的:也即是阿拉伯领导者的无能。

To Western ears, the pretence that IS is a government in office is absurd, a bit of jihadist braggadocio; to many Muslim clerics (and even al-Qaeda) it is heresy. Yet it has stirred a form of messianism. “Rush, O Muslims, to your state,” declared Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, IS’s leader. And thousands have indeed rushed to fight for and build the Islamic Utopia: even schoolgirls have abandoned families and friends in Europe.
“伊斯兰国“自封合法政府的举动在西方社会看来不过是不自量力的自我鼓吹;就穆斯林阿訇(甚至基地组织)看来,这不外乎是天方夜谭。尽管两方都不待见,“伊斯兰国”还是成功掀起了弥赛亚主义的狂潮“来吧,穆斯林们,快投入祖国的怀抱”,“伊斯兰国”的领袖阿布·巴克尔·巴格达迪向世界各地的穆斯林发出如此召唤,在他的煽动下,成千上万的伊斯兰教徒蜂拥而至,急不可耐的要为这个伊斯兰天堂抛头颅洒热血:在欧洲甚至有学龄女孩抛家弃友前来投奔。

The call of the caliphate has galvanised zealots. Yet, even as IS launches terrorist attacks, the good news is that cracks in the caliphate are becoming increasingly apparent. IS is losing ground, money and the consent of the people it rules.
伊斯兰王国复兴的号角唤醒了一批狂热者的热情。然而,尽管”伊斯兰国“的恐怖袭击至今仍未消停,其外强中干已初现端倪。“伊斯兰国”正输掉土地、资金以及人心。

The state of Islamic State
“伊斯兰国”现状 

The caliphate has been pushed out of the Syrian town of Kobane by Kurdish fighters, backed by American air power. It is being squeezed in Tikrit (the tribal base of the former dictator, Saddam Hussein) by the Iraqi army and Shia militias co-ordinated by Iran. Compared with the peak, when it was at the gates of Baghdad, its territory has shrunk by about 25%.
在库尔德士兵的抗击,美国空军力量的援助下,伊斯兰复国运动在叙利亚科班尼地区已无立足之地。在伊朗调遣的伊拉克军队和什叶派民兵的步步紧逼下,提克里克地区更是四面楚歌(其前任领导者萨达姆侯赛因的根据地)“伊斯兰国”势力在其鼎盛状态已无限逼近巴格达,然而如今,其领地已然缩水近25%。

IS’s funds are dwindling, too. America and its allies have bombed lucrative oil facilities. Most of the hostages have been sold or murdered in video-recorded beheadings. Now that IS’s forces are retreating, the loot of conquest has dried up. Some analysts reckon it may have lost up to 75% of its revenues. That makes it harder for IS to keep fighting and to provide services to the roughly 8m people living under its rule.
另一方面,“伊斯兰国”的资金源也在枯竭。美国及其盟军炮击了“伊斯兰国”多处油田挖掘设施,断其财源;与此同时,伊斯兰国”手上的大部分人质,不是已经被用来换取了赎金,就是在录像里被斩首杀害;而其江河日下之势也意味着靠打胜仗四处搜刮劫掠的好日子一去不复返。分析人士称,“伊斯兰国”可能已经丧失了75%的收入来源。这使得持续战争并为在其控制下的800万民众提供公共服务难上加难。

That may help explain signs of internal tension. The movement has started to kill its own followers, sometimes for fleeing before the enemy and on at least one occasion supposedly for zealously beheading too many people. Residents complain of extortion, violent repression and declining public services. There are reports of tensions between local and foreign members over disparities in pay.
这也许能够解释“圣战组织”近来出现的内讧迹象。内部成员开始自相残杀,有时是因为有人临战脱逃,还有至少一次据推测是对平民百姓大开杀戒引发的不满。“圣战组织”控制区的居民也因敲诈勒索,暴力镇压不断,公共服务越来越差而叫苦不迭。据报道称,组织内当地成员和外国成员也因报酬差距问题而剑拔弩张。

Judged by its own standard, then, the caliphate is failing as an all-conquering state and model for society. That matters because a proto-state with a large territory and population to defend is also more vulnerable to setbacks than terrorist groups that are not rooted to a patch of land. Precisely because IS claims to be running a model Islamic state, its visible failure exposes the bankruptcy of its ideology and the hollowness of its claims to would-be recruits. If, as some say, the secret of IS’s success is success itself; then failure will gain momentum, too.
就“伊斯兰国”自己提出的标准来看,建立一个所向披靡的伊斯兰国家,一个伊斯兰社会之范本的梦想已然落空。相较于不受地域束缚的恐怖组织而言,一个幅员辽阔,人口众多的大国典范将会使其在诸多问题面前更不堪一击。而大国梦的破碎恰恰宣告了其意识形态的破产,而其对跃跃欲试想要加入的人夸下的海口也更显空洞无力。有人说,如果“伊斯兰国”的成功是建立在它已取得的辉煌之上,那么其如今的颓势也将引发其进一步溃败。

Even so, the hardest part of defeating IS still lies ahead, starting with the military campaign in Iraq. In recent days the operation to oust it from Tikrit has been hampered by hidden bombs and snipers. And after Tikrit falls, there is Mosul—bigger and more important, with a population closely associated with IS. The recapture of Mosul is vital to puncturing IS’s claim to be a caliphate. The nature of the campaign matters, too. The Iranian-sponsored Shia militias at the forefront of the fighting in Tikrit are known for having victimised Sunni civilians in earlier fighting nearer Baghdad. The fear is growing that, by depending so heavily on Iran, Iraq is being turned into an Iranian satrapy. If so, Iraq’s disenchanted Sunni population will cleave even more tightly to the IS jihadists as their best and only protectors. It is important, therefore, that the attack on Mosul is led by a professional, non-sectarian Iraqi army. The trouble is that the Iraqi army is demoralised and far from ready.
话虽如此,击溃“伊斯兰国”仍任重道远,而首先要解决的就是伊拉克的军事冲突。联军近日欲将“伊斯兰国”逐出提克里特(译者注:伊拉克城市),但军事行动因城中埋设的大量炸弹及狙击手的阻挠而困难重重。不仅如此,攻下提克里特后,还需夺回摩苏尔(译者注:伊拉克北部城市)。相较于前者而言,摩苏尔领土更为庞大,战略意义更重要,其居民与“伊斯兰国”的关系也更为紧密。收复摩苏尔对于摧毁“伊斯兰国”建立伊斯兰国家统一政权的狂言至关重要。此外,战役的性质也备受关注。由伊朗支持,在提克里特前线浴血奋战的什叶派民兵被指在早先巴格达附近的一次冲突中对逊尼派大开杀戒。人们越来越担心伊拉克会因过度依赖伊朗而被伊朗吞并。如果事情果真朝着这个方向发展,伊拉克国内的逊尼派人士将会因为对政府失望透顶而愈发坚定地投靠伊斯兰圣战组织,将其视为他们最可靠的保护者和唯一的救命稻草。如此看来,收复摩苏尔的战役必须由一支具有专业素质,且在宗教问题上持中立态度的伊拉克军队指挥。而问题就在于伊拉克军队现在士气低落,整装待发还为时尚早。

Hardest of all is the insoluble problem of Syria. Even if Mosul can be retaken, IS or something like it will survive, certainly for as long as it enjoys an unchallenged haven in Syria. For the time being, nobody is even thinking of trying to eject IS from the Syrian city of Raqqa: not the regime in Damascus, which wants to prove that the only alternative to IS is Bashar Assad; not the Kurds, who will not fight far beyond their enclaves; not Jabhat al-Nusra, the most effective rebel force, which remains a franchise of al-Qaeda; and not the rebels being trained by America, who are too few to make a difference.
要战胜“伊斯兰国”,最艰难的部分在于叙利亚。即便收复了摩苏尔,”伊斯兰国“(或是性质相似的其他恐怖组织)也会因为牢牢掌握着叙利亚这个绝对的避风港而野火烧不尽,春风吹又生。就现在的形势来看,没有任何一方想把圣战分子从叙利亚拉卡赶出去;叙利亚政府容忍其存在,因为政府要用这个反面教材来证明巴沙尔·阿萨德政权的优越性;库尔德工人党冷眼旁观,他们只想守着自己的一方土地,不愿多管闲事;就连反政府力量中最强有力的一支,基地组织麾下的叙利亚恐怖组织努斯拉阵线也愿意与之共存;而美国培养的反政府力量人数稀少,根本不足以掀起风浪。

Syria will not be pacified soon—possibly not for many years. Until that moment, IS can lurk there, controlling swathes in the east, destabilising Sunni areas of Iraq and biding its time until it has another chance to rise up. Defeat in Mosul could reduce the caliphate to a rump entity, or could lead it to disintegrate into a patchwork of warring fiefs, like much of the rest of the country. It would still pose a grave threat to the outside world and would need constant watching. But degradation would make it easier to contain than it is today.
叙利亚的动乱不会迅速平息,和平仍是遥遥无期。而在此之前,”伊斯兰国“尽可以藏匿于此,一面霸占着东部的领土,一面在伊拉克逊尼派掌握的地区四处破坏,动摇人心,以期东山再起。兵败摩苏尔可能会使这个致力于建立统一伊斯兰世界的组织元气大伤,只留下些残兵败将苦苦支撑;也可能会使其像国内不少其他组织一样,在备受硝烟摧残后沦落为貌合神离的一盘散沙。尽管如此,”伊斯兰国“仍将对外部社会构成重大威胁,对其长期监视仍属必要。但其势力的削弱将使外界牵制更加容易。

Always with us
阴魂不散

Destruction is much further off. As much as Islamic State is a cause of chaos in the Middle East, it is also a symptom. Its ideology feeds off Sunnis’ sense of victimhood. The group has taken root across the region, and especially where the state has collapsed. Defeating it is ultimately a matter of rebuilding governments in the Arab world—a task that will take decades. Cutting back the caliphate is just the vital first step.
歼灭”伊斯兰国“非一朝一夕之事。事实上该组织不仅是中东混乱局面的幕后推手之一,也是这种混乱的真实体现。逊尼派的受害者心态滋生了这种意识形态,圣战组织则借此在中东遍地开花,特别是在那些民生凋敝,国家机器崩塌的国家扎根。归根结底,消灭这股势力意味着要在阿拉伯世界重塑政府力量,而达成这个目标还需要数十年的时间,削弱“伊斯兰国”的势力只是其中至关重要的第一招棋。

【原文来源:economist.com 作者: The Economist  翻译来源:yeeyan.org 译者:复旦大学翻译社】



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