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朝鲜的核武器实力究竟如何?威胁到底有多大?

2017-08-11    来源:未知    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

朝鲜的炮兵和火箭部队可能会在冲突爆发后数小时内将韩国首都首尔打平,是真的吗?

North Korea is an isolated, impoverished but highly militarised state. Its leadership has one essential goal - survival. That is why they have placed huge resources in their nuclear and missile programmes as the ultimate insurance policy for the regime.
朝鲜是一个孤立的、贫穷但高度军事化的国家。它的领导层有一个重要目标——生存。这就是为什么他们会投入大量的资源在他们的核武器和导弹项目上,作为政权的最终保障。

Any use of its nuclear capability would be catastrophic - especially so for North Korea itself. The regime would not survive the ensuing conflict.
任何使用其核武器的行为都将是灾难性的——尤其是对朝鲜本身而言。在随后引发的冲突将使得朝鲜这个政权无法生存。

But this awful prospect is not necessarily the immediate worry. It is the threat of the escalating war of words between Washington and Pyongyang moving from rhetoric to reality.
但这种可怕的前景并不一定是迫在眉睫的,而是美国和朝鲜之间不断升级的言辞之间的摩擦可能升级为战争。

North Korea is a country that has episodically resorted to the use of force in the past and could do so again. In March 2010 it is believed to have sunk a small South Korean warship. In the same year its artillery shelled a South Korean island and if this current crisis does go hot, it is likely to be South Korea that is on the receiving end of the North’s anger.
在过去,朝鲜经常依靠武力,他们可能再次这样做。2010年3月,他们击沉了一艘韩国军舰。同一年,朝鲜炮击了韩国的岛屿,如果这次的危机一旦爆发,很有可能是韩国成为直接受害者。

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North Korea’s military has the numerical advantage over the South and is deployed close to the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) marking the boundary between the two Koreas. It is frequently suggested that North Korean artillery and rocket forces (its strongest card) could level the South Korean capital Seoul within hours of the outbreak of a conflict.
朝鲜比韩国有军事优势,在非军事区部署有军队,这正是南北韩之间的分界线。经常有人说,朝鲜的炮兵和火箭部队(其最强大的王牌)可能会在冲突爆发后数小时内将韩国首都首尔打平。

This is not actually so. Seoul is some 40km (24 miles) from the DMZ and can only be reached by the North’s longest range artillery pieces.
事实并非如此。首尔距离非军事区大约40公里(24英里),只能通过朝鲜最长射程的炮弹到达。

South Korea has by far the qualitative edge and it is of course backed up by the extensive strike power of the US military. Any reprise of the Korean War of the 1950s - the movement of the North’s forces southwards - would create huge numbers of civilian casualties (indeed among them would be many Chinese students and businesspeople resident in Seoul) but would inevitably end in a catastrophe for the North Korean regime.
韩国得到较多的支持,当然,这是由美国军方的强大的军事力量所支持的。20世纪50年代朝鲜战争的重演,即朝鲜军队向南进攻,将造成大量人民伤亡(实际上其中包括许多在首尔的中国学生和商人),也不可避免地会导致朝鲜政权的动摇。

Quite apart from the reach of its artillery and rocket forces, the North has an extensive chemical arsenal. It may also have biological weapons. It has large numbers of highly trained special forces and other units designed to infiltrate the South. And it has developed a cyber attack capability as well.
除了它的大炮和火箭部队之外,朝鲜还有大量的化学武器。它也可能有生物武器。它有大量训练有素的特种部队和专门训练潜入韩国的部队。它也提升了自己的网络攻击能力。

So it has many means by which it might seek to take military action. But any attack against the US or its allies in the current context risks a more generalised war.
因此,它有许多手段可以寻求采取军事行动。但在当前环境下,任何针对美国或其盟友的攻击,都有可能爆发更大面积的战争。

From the North Korean perspective, having a nuclear weapon and an intercontinental missile capability to hold at risk the territory of the continental United States is entirely rational. The demise of the dictatorships in Iraq and Libya, the North Koreans would argue, was in large part because they did not have recourse to the ultimate weapon.
从朝鲜的角度来看,拥有核武器和洲际导弹的能力,使美国大陆的领土处于危险之中,这完全是合理的。朝鲜会辩称,在伊拉克和利比亚的独裁统治的终结,在很大程度上是因为他们没有依靠强大的武器。

Risking an all-out war with the United States though that could only end in the regime’s demise makes no sense. Any war on the Korean peninsula would play to Washington’s advantages. North Korean forces would be channelled southwards into limited avenues of advance due to the topography and the Pentagon could employ the classic concepts of its air-land battle to defeat them.
冒着与美国爆发全面战争且是一场注定会导致灭亡的战争的风险,毫无意义。朝鲜半岛的任何战争上,美国都占据优势。由于地形的原因,朝鲜军队将被引向南方这个有限的道路上,而五角大楼可以利用空中作战来击败他们。

Such a war though is unthinkable. It is in neither side’s interests. The risk now is entirely of mistake, miscalculation and actions taken on the basis of clumsy and confused rhetorical signals.The US now needs to be cautious about the tone of its own messaging.
这样的战争是不可想象的。这不符合双方的利益。现在的朝鲜冒的风险完全是基于误会和错误的估计以及愚昧和混乱状态下所采取的行动。美国现在需要谨慎对待自己的一言一行。


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