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银行业联盟不会化解欧元区危机

2012-10-30    来源:FT    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

A monumental project, but not an end to the crisis 

Eurozone leaders held a summit last week that was important, but not for the reasons you might think. What has been decided will change the future of Europe. The banking union is a tool so powerful that it could unite the core of the EU. But it will also separate it from the rest. It is more useful to think of the banking union as a long-term political project than as a tool of crisis resolution. Depending on your view, it can be monumental or irrelevant.  

欧元区领导人上周召开了一次峰会,这次会议很重要,但原因并非你们可能想象的那样。会上做出的决定将改变欧洲的未来。银行业联盟是一个强大的工具,可能让欧盟(EU)核心国家团结起来,但它也会让核心国家与其他国家离心。与其将这个银行业联盟视为一种危机解决工具,倒不如将其视为一项长期政治项目更有用。它可能意义重大,也可能无关紧要,这取决于你们的见解。  

The decision taken at the summit was to agree a firm timetable for the set-up and the legal foundations of a single supervisory mechanism – a new eurozone bank regulator within the European Central Bank. It will be the first of several steps towards a full banking union – a process that will take many years to complete. The SSM will ultimately encompass all 6,000 eurozone banks. It may not supervise each directly but it can seize control when it wants to. The set-up of the SSM will be followed by a common bank recapitalisation policy and fund, a single resolution mechanism and, ultimately, a single deposit insurance scheme. The economic functions of resolution, recapitalisation and deposit insurance can be pooled in different ways, in different institutions. The final shape is as yet uncertain. But it is going to happen.  

此次峰会做出的决定是同意就单一监管机制——在欧洲央行(ECB)内部建立一个新的欧元区银行监管机构——的结构和法律基础设定一个严格的时间表。这将是迈向全面银行业联盟的诸多步骤中的第一步,整个进程将历时多年才能完成。单一监管机制最终将涵盖欧元区全部6000家银行。该机制可能不会直接监管每家银行,但它如果想要监管的话,就可以施加控制。在建立单一监管机制以后,将是制定共同的银行资本重组政策并成立一只基金,创建一个单一清算机制,最后是建立一个单一存款保险机制。可以在不同的机构以不同的方式行使清算、资本重组和存款保险的经济职能。最终的结构目前尚未确定,但总会走到这一步。  

Angela Merkel, German chancellor, was right when she said you could not have the SSM up and running by January 2013. A complete banking union is hugely complex and takes time. Important aspects of the project will require a change in the European treaties. Britain and others with no ambitions to join the eurozone will not sign up. It would be wrong to think of banking union as an extension of the single market. It is best to think of it as part of the hard-wiring of a monetary union.  

德国总理安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)曾表示,该机制不可能在2013年1月之前建立并运转。这种说法没错。全面的银行业联盟极为复杂,它不会一蹴而就。要完成该项目的某些重要条款,就需要对欧洲条约做出修改,而无意加入欧元区的英国和其他国家将不会赞同修改。认为银行业联盟是单一市场延伸的看法将是错误的。我们最好将其视为构建货币联盟的一部分。  

The banking union destroys two illusions that accompanied the creation of the euro – one held in the eurozone itself, one outside. The first was that a minimalist monetary union would be sustainable. The outsiders succumbed to the illusion of a false menu choice: the ability to pick and choose areas of European integration to take part in. It turned out that remaining inside the EU but outside the eurozone was still not a sustainable biosphere.  

银行业联盟摧毁了两种伴随欧元诞生出现的错误观念:一个是欧元区自己的认知,另一种出现在欧元区以外。第一种观点认为极简的货币联盟将是可持续的。欧元区以外的国家则受到一种错误的菜单选项的影响:它们有能力选择性地参与欧洲一体化项目。事实证明,留在欧盟之内但不加入欧元区仍然不是一个可持续的状态。  

As time goes on, the eurozone will usurp the EU. It will have its own banking union, its own budget, its own political union and, ultimately, its own single market – something that is not legally possible now. The fundamental reason why Britain is now headed for a probable exit, or at least for marginalisation, is not a eurosceptic prime minister but the decision taken 15 years ago not to join the euro.  

随着时间的推移,欧元区将逐渐取代欧盟的位置。欧元区将拥有自己的银行业联盟、自己的预算、自己的政治联盟,最后将拥有自己的单一市场——就目前而言,某些项目在法律上还不被允许。英国现在之所以走到可能退出或者至少被边缘化的地步,根本原因不是有一个疑欧派首相,而是在于15年前英国做出的不加入欧元区的决定。  

The banking union and its various cousins constitute the biggest act of political integration in Europe since the creation of the European Economic Community 55 years ago.  

创建银行业联盟及其各式姊妹联盟,成为自55年前欧洲经济共同体(European Economic Community)成立以来欧洲政治一体化的最重要举措。  

I believe that they will be even bigger than the euro itself because they are a significant encroachment on national sovereignty on several levels.  

我认为,它们的影响甚至会超过欧元本身,因为它们在多个层面严重侵蚀了国家主权。  

While the combination of banking, fiscal and economic union, if done properly, would create a minimally sufficient institutional set-up for a sustainable monetary union, there is a big snag: the monetary union might blow up well before the new mechanisms kick in. The banking union, as currently constructed, will not help us in the current crisis.  

尽管操作得当的话,银行业、财政和经济联盟结合在一起将为货币联盟的可持续发展创造最基本的机制框架,但一个重大漏洞是:货币联盟可能会早在新机制启动之前解体。按照现在的设计,银行业联盟在这场危机中帮不了我们。  

Many commentators made two mistaken assumptions. The first was that the SSM would be operational from January. The second was that this would trigger an automatic change in the existing bank rescue programme for Spain. It now appears that the SSM will begin work in the second half of 2013. Eurozone leaders have reaffirmed that the operational start of the SSM would allow the European Stability Mechanism to recapitalise banks directly without burdening member states.  

很多评论人士提出了两个错误假设。第一,该机制将从明年1月起施行。第二个是它将引发现有的西班牙银行救助计划自动变更。目前看来,该机制似乎会在2013年下半年启动。欧元区领导人已重申,该机制的开始运转将使得欧元区稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)在不给成员国造成负担的情况下直接对银行进行资本重组。  



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