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预测2014全球将面临的十大危机

2014-01-22    来源:chinadaily    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

10 greatest threats facing the world in 2014

世界经济论坛在周四发布了《2014全球危机报告》。

The World Economic Forum on Thursday released its Global Risks 2014 report.
"Taking a 10-year outlook, the report assesses 31 risks that are global in nature and have the potential to cause significant negative impact across entire countries and industries if they take place," is how the WEF describes the report in a statement accompanying its release.

"The risks are grouped under five classifications — economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological — and measured in terms of their likelihood and potential impact," the statement says.

The report canvasses the views of 700 experts from around the world. Ten of what the WEF calls the "global risks of highest concern" for 2014 are as follows:

Fiscal crises in key economies

"Fiscal crises feature as the top risk in this year's Global Risks report. Advanced economies remain in danger, while many emerging markets have seen credit growth in recent years, which could fuel financial crises. A fiscal crisis in any major economy could easily have cascading global impacts."

Structurally high unemployment/underemployment

"Unemployment appears second overall, as many people in both advanced and emerging economies struggle to find jobs. Young people are especially vulnerable – youth unemployment is as high as 50% in some countries and underemployment (with low-quality jobs) remains prevalent, especially in emerging and developing markets."

Water crises

"Environmental risks feature prominently on this year's list. Water crises, for instance, rank as the third highest concern, illustrating a continued and growing awareness of the global water crisis as a result of mismanagement and increased competition for already scarce water resources."

Severe income disparity

"Closely associated in terms of societal risk, income disparity is also among the most worrying issues. Concerns have been raised about the squeezing effect the financial crisis had on the middle classes in developed economies, while globalization has brought about a polarization of incomes in emerging and developing economies."

Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation

"Even as governments and corporations are called upon to speed up greenhouse gas reduction, it is clear that the race is on not only to mitigate climate change but also to adapt. Failure to adapt has the biggest effect on the most vulnerable, especially those in least developed countries."

Greater incidence of extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, fires)

"Climate change is the key driver of uncertain and changing weather patterns, causing an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. The Global Risks 2014 report draws attention to the combined implications of these environmental risks on key development and security issues, such as food security and political and social instability, ranked 8th and 10th respectively."

Global governance failure

"The risk of global governance failure, which lies at the heart of the risk map, was viewed by respondents as one of the risks that is most connected to others. Weak or inadequate global institutions, agreements or networks, combined with competing national and political interests, impede attempts to cooperate on addressing global risks."

Food crises

"One of the top societal risks in the report, food crises occur when access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition becomes inadequate or unreliable. Food crises are strongly linked to the risk of climate change and related factors."

Failure of a major financial mechanism/institution

"Over five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the failure of a major financial mechanism or institution also features among the risks that respondents are most concerned about, as uncertainty about the quality of many banks' assets remains."

Profound political and social instability

"At number 10 is the risk that one or more systemically critical countries will experience significant erosion of trust and mutual obligations between states and citizens. This could lead to state collapse, internal violence, regional or global instability and, potentially, military conflict."

相关内容

“该报告预测了在10年内可能发生的31个危机,它们的发生将对全球的城市及工业产生严重的负面影响。”在发布该报告时WEF(世界经济论坛)解释道。
报告说:“这些危机被分为5大类,分别是经济、环境、地缘政治、社会以及科技,对评估标准是它们发生的可能性与可能带来的影响。”

该报告征求了全球700多位专家的意见,“全球最关注的危机”榜单前十位如下所示:

主要经济体的财政危机

在本年度的全球危机报告中,财政危机位列第一。发达国家的经济依旧危险,同时新兴市场上的信用在近年急速增长,这些都可能导致财政危机。主要经济体的财政危机将会轻而易举地影响到全球经济。

高结构性失业率/不良就业

失业排在榜上的第二位,无论是在发达国家还是新兴经济体中,许多人都在艰难地寻找着工作。年轻人最为受伤——在部分城市,年轻人的失业率高达50%。就业不理想(低质量就业)是非常普遍的,尤其是在发展中国家。

水源危机

在今年危机排行榜上,环境危机尤为显著。当前,水源危机已经排在了第三位,这说明,原本就已经供不应求的水资源,在不当的、日益激烈的竞争之后,人们开始对全球水源危机的意识在不断加强。

收入两极化

由于其与社会危机的密切关系,收入两极化也成为了最令人担忧的事情。在发展中国家,财政危机对中产阶级产生的挤压效应引发了人们更深的担忧,并且,全球化使得新兴的发展中国家出现了收入两极化。

气候变化抑制失败

政府和企业被呼吁要求加速推进减少温室气体排放进程,但很明显的是减缓气候变化是不够的,我们需要去改变这种变化。如果我们没能改变它,后果将是极其严重的,尤其是对于那些脆弱的发展中国家而言。

极端天气频发(如:洪水、暴风和火灾等)

气候变化将主导具有不确定性、不断变化的天气模式,这将引起极端天气频繁发生,如:洪水和干旱。《2014全球危机报告》中将这些环境因素与其可能影响到的关键性发展与安全问题结合在一起,如食品安全、政治与社会的稳定,它们分别列于榜单上的第8位和第10位。

世界秩序紊乱

全球秩序的紊乱被认为是整份危机榜单的核心,它可能是其他危机引发的连锁反应,同时也与其他危机紧密相关。不称职的全球性机构、与国家政治利益息息相关的条约协议都将阻挡各国通力合作对应全球危机的脚步。

粮食危机

在该报告中,粮食危机成为第一大社会问题,当出现无法获得足够食物的粮食危机时,政府将被认为是不称职并且不可信的。粮食危机与气候变化和其他一些相关因素联系非常紧密。

主要金融机构破产

雷曼兄弟银行破产五年后的今天,主要金融机构的破产成为全球危机之一,它带来的后果也令人非常担忧,同样令人担忧的还有对银行当前所有资产安全等级的不确定。

深层次的政治社会危机

第10位的危机是人们与政府相互间的信任和义务责任的缺失,它很可能发生在大城市,并且不止一个。这将导致政府崩溃、内部暴力武装、区域性或全球性的不稳定,甚至将引发武装战争。



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