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本世纪40年代夏季或比2003年夏季还要炎热

2014-03-27    来源:dailymail    【      美国外教 在线口语培训

据英国《每日邮报》3月26日报道,英国气象局哈德莱中心(Met Office Hadley Centre)最新的一项研究报告显示,全球气候变化使得极端天气更加频繁,英国在未来的30年间将会持续出现酷热天气。到本世纪40年代,半数以上的夏季将比2003年的夏季还要炎热得多。

Summer heatwaves here to stay as seasons become more extreme thanks to climate change, say experts

More than half of summers by 2040s are likely to be hotter than in 2003

20,000 people died in heatwave which peaked in August that year

Weather experts say people will still have to plan for cold winters

Heavy downpours are becoming more frequent in UK

Climate change is also likely to affect UK's food supplies and prices

THE last time we endured a blistering hot summer it buckled railway lines, melted roads and had millions of us wilting.

It might be worth warming up to the idea – because extreme heat will become the norm in the UK within 30 years, say forecasters.

A Met Office report says heatwaves like that of 2003 – when temperatures soared to a record 101F (38.5C) – will happen every other year by the 2040s.

Although it will pile pressure on the health service, water supplies and farming, experts said it may also mean a boom in products such as English wine as conditions improve for heat-loving plants.

Winters are also expected to become generally milder – with the occasional very cold one, as occurred in 2010.

Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, said: ‘At the moment, we’re able to say that by the 2040s we can expect events like 2003 to be normal.’

 

Hot hot hot: Children cool down in the mud on August 6, 2003 in Maldon, England, when the temperature in the UK peaked at 35.9C

In fact by the end of the century, 2003 could even be viewed as a cold summer if trends continue, he said.

But along with hotter summer months we could be heading for more frequent heavy winter downpours.

‘Heavy rain is becoming heavier and that’s consistent with our picture of a warming world and warming atmosphere,’ said Professor Belcher.

The report points to a combination of natural processes and human influences on Britain’s changing climate.

It blamed a series of recent wet summers on natural climate variation, but said man could be partly responsible for the blisteringly hot 2003.

The report concluded: ‘The UK has seasonal weather that varies hugely from year to year due to natural processes.

‘Nevertheless, human influence has been detected in the hot temperatures experienced in Europe during the summer of 2003, and there are signs that the character of rainfall has shifted in the last 50 years with slightly more heavy rainfall events, consistent with a warmer atmosphere holding more water.

'Other seasons, such as the cold winter of 2010/11 and the wet summer of 2012 appear to be associated with natural fluctuations in the UK’s varied climate.’

Professor Andrew Challinor, from the University of Leeds, said warmer temperatures could cause wheat yields to drop by up to ten per cent.

But there would also be more ‘opportunities’ for British farmers – who would be able to grow new crops such as grapes and maize, he added.

More than 2,000 people are thought to have died of heat-related causes in the UK in 2003, and 20,000 in the rest of Europe.

Alongside traffic chaos, hosepipe bans were imposed and rising demand for air conditioning caused electricity ‘brownouts’.

相关介绍:

哈德莱中心的这份报告称,英国2003年夏季的气温曾飙升至华氏101度(摄氏38.5度),创英国气象史上最高纪录。持续的高温使得铁轨变形,路面柏油融化,成千上万的人变得无精打采。

那一年,英国2000多人死于炎热,在欧洲其他国家这一数字达到2万。持续的高温天气还使得交通混乱,用电量急剧增加,一些地区不得不实行拉闸限电。

报告称,2003年的酷热现象将会在本世纪40年代重演。到那时,暖冬现象也会比较普遍,尽管偶尔会有寒潮侵入,2010年就有过类似和情况。

英国气象局哈德利中心主任史蒂芬•贝尔彻教授说:“此时此刻我们可以说,到本世纪40年代任何与2003年间相像的事情皆属正常。事实上,到本世纪末,2003甚至可以被看作是一个凉爽的夏天,如果这种趋势继续下去的话。”

贝尔彻教授说:“随着夏季变得愈加炎热,我们可能将会面临更频繁更严重的冬季暴雨。”

报告指出,英国不断变化的气候与自然过程和人类活动有关,特别是夏季变得越来越潮热,一部分原因归咎于自然界的自身变化,一部分要归咎于人类活动,尤其以2003年之夏为例。

尽管酷热现象会给卫生服务、自来水供应和农业生产带来压力,但对喜热作物的生长却极为有利。

英国利兹大学的安得鲁•查里诺教授说:“尽管气候变暖会导致小麦产量下降10%,但对英国农民来说却意味着更多的‘机会’。他们可以种植诸如喜热作物的产品,如葡萄和玉米,这也会给葡萄酒业产生推动作用。”



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