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VOA慢速[经济]人口老龄化将给全球经济带来负面影响

2014-11-03    来源:普特英语听力    【      美国外教 在线口语培训
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From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report.

The world is getting older. As more people retire each year, fewer working-age people will be there to replace them. This has effects not only in the work place but in the world finance. The bond rating agency Moody's says the aging population will lead to a drop in household savings. This could mean that total investments will fall and economic growth could slow.

Some reports have described Japan, Italy and Germany as the world's "Super Aged" nations. That is the name for countries in which at least 20 percent of the population is at least 65 years old.

Elena Duggar is head of Moody's Sovereign Risk Division. She says changes in many populations are taking place quickly.

"The demographic transition is upon us now and its progressing, by historical standards, quite rapidly," Duggar said.

In five years, six more countries will join the list of "Super Aged" nations. And 34 nations will be super aged by the year 2030.

Elena Duggar says this will have a big influence on labor and savings.

"That will translate into reductions in labor supply. At the same time aging means that the household savings rates will go down, which will negatively impact on investment. Both trends put together would mean that aging will have a significant negative impact on global growth," Duggar said.

The Conference Board reports on business conditions around the world. It says an aging population could reduce world economic growth by one percent in the next ten years. 

Kishore Kulkarni is with the Metropolitan State University of Denver. He says immigration is one way to reduce the effects of an aging population. Older adults spend money differently than younger ones. And experts say that difference affects the economies of countries. 

But Kishore Kulkarni believes that specialized career training and productivity gains from technology could make up for the drop in the number of workers. He says the problems of an aging population represent only a mismatching or misalignment of the demand for goods. 

"It is a misalignment of demand rather than a total and a drastic change in the demand. And it is a challenge which we can easily accept and tackle as it comes to us," Kulkarni said.

He also says that an aging population will be less of a problem in countries where older people are highly valued. And most experts agree that younger workers will have to work longer and retire later than today's older workers.

And that's the Economics Report from VOA Learning English. For more Learning English programs, go to our website putclub.com. And follow us on Facebook and Twitter. I'm Mario Ritter. 

文本来源于普特论坛[report整理] SENEWS-2014-09-12


世界人口正在老龄化。随着每年退休的人越来越多,而能够接替他们工作的劳动力却越来越少。这不仅已经影响到职场,还影响到了世界金融。债券评级机构Moody表示,人口老龄化将导致居民储蓄下降。这可能意味着总投资额将会下降,经济增长将会减慢。
 
一些报道称日本、意大利和德国是世界“超高龄化”国家。超高龄化国家是指至少20%的人口为65岁以上的国家。
 
Elena Duggar是Moody主权风险部门的负责人。她说人口结构中正在迅速改变。
 
Duggar:“说人口结构转型正在逼近,按历史标准来衡量,其速度极快。”
 
在五年内,至少6个国家将加入“超高龄化”国家的行列。在2030年还有34个国家也将成为超高龄化国家。
 
Elena Duggar表示这将会对劳动力和储蓄产生巨大影响。
 
Duggar说:“这将进而演变为劳动力供给的减少。同时,老龄化意味着家庭储蓄率将会下降,进而对投资产生负面影响。两大趋势叠加在一起则意味着老龄化将对全球经济增长产生显著的负面影响。”
 
世界大型企业联合会就全球商业状况发表了报告。报告显示在未来十年人口老龄化会使世界经济增长率降低1%。
 
Kishore Kulkarni在丹佛大都会州立大学工作。他表明移民是降低人口老龄化产生的影响的一种办法。老人在消费方面不同于年轻人。专家们表示,这种差异会影响到国家经济。
 
但是Kishore Kulkarni认为专业化的职业培训和利用高科技提升的生产率可以弥补工人数量的不足。人口老龄化问题仅代表对商品需求的错位。 
 
Kulkarni还说:“它是需求的一种错位,而不是需求的彻底变化和急剧变化。当这种变化出现后,我们可以轻松接受并解决这一挑战。”
 
他还表示,人口老龄化对老人得到高度重视的国家来说问题不大。而大多数专家认为,与如今的老员工相比,年轻员工不得不工作得更久并延迟退休时间。
 
以上是本期VOA慢速英语经济报道的全部内容。关于更多Learning English栏目,点击我们的网站putclub.com。在Facebook和Twitter上关注我们。我是Mario Ritters。


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