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VOA慢速[经济报道]2015年全球经济增长预估

2015-03-11    来源:普特英语听力    【      美国外教 在线口语培训
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From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report.
 
Two recent economic reports warn that, although the world economy is growing, complicating issues like lower oil prices and conflict could hurt progress.
 
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has reduced its prediction for world economic growth from 3.8 to 3.5 percent. That is still an improvement over 2014. But, the international lender says some major economies are facing economic struggles.
 
The price of oil is about half of what it was last June. The IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, says lower oil prices have helped many major economies, but investment has dropped in oil exporting countries.
 
“On the one hand, major economies are benefiting from the decline in the price of oil,” Blanchard says. “But on the other, in many parts of the world, lower long run prospects adversely affect demand.”
 
The United Nations also released a report called “The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015.” UN economists predict growth this year will be 3.1 percent. They point out that crises like the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and conflict in Ukraine could hurt a world economy showing signs of improvement.
 
Many see cost-cutting as a barrier to growth. High debt levels have limited opportunities for expansion in Europe. Alfredo Calcagno is an economist with the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development. He says austerity programs suppress economic recovery. Greece, he said, is one example.
 
The report predicts Africa’s growth rate will increase reaching 4.6 percent in 2015 and 4.9 percent in 2016. East-African countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda are doing well.
 
“In these countries, what you have is investment in other areas like telecommunication, infrastructure. You have a rising middle class that also is increasing its demands.”
 
But in Africa south of the Sahara Desert, IMF economists say growth expectations have weakened especially in Nigeria and South Africa. Falling prices of raw materials called commodities have also weakened expectations in Latin American and the Caribbean area.
 
Exchange rates can also influence economic growth. The value of the US dollar has strengthened while the euro and the yen have weakened.  

The U.S. also is expected to show good growth of over three percent this year.
 
UN economists expect East Asia to remain the fastest growing area with economic expansion of almost five percent. However, both IMF and the UN economists expect China’s growth to be under seven percent in 2015.
 
And that’s the Economics Report. I’m Mario Ritter.

 文本来源于普特论坛[report整理] SENEWS-2015-01-23


这里是美国之音经济报道。

近日,两份经济报道警告称虽然全球经济在增长,但是油价下跌和冲突事件等复杂问题可能危害发展进程。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)将全球经济增长预估从3.8%降低至3.5%。相比2014年仍然有所增长,但是,作为国际借贷机构,国际货币基金组织称一些主要经济体正面临经济斗争。

油价只有去年6月价格的一半左右,国际货币基金组织首席经济学家Olivier Blanchard称油价下跌有助于许多主要经济体,但是石油出口国的投资有所下滑。

Blanchard 称:“一方面,主要经济体因为油价下跌而获益,但是,另一方面,全球很多地区降低长期前景反过来影响了需求。”

联合国也发布了名为《2015年世界经济形势和展望》的报告。联合国经济学家预测今年经济增长将达到3.1%并指出如西非埃博拉病毒的爆发和乌克兰冲突的危机将危害全球经济,尽管全球经济出现好转迹象。

不少人将削减开支视为经济发展的绊脚石,高额债务水平使欧洲经济增长的机会受限。Alfredo Calcagno是联合国国会贸易和发展会议的经济学家,他称缩减开支的方案将阻碍经济复苏,希腊就是一个例子。

报告预计2015年非洲经济增长率将上升至4.6%,而2016年为4.9%。东非公家如埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和乌干达的经济发展也不错。

“在这些国家,投资往往在电信和基础设施的领域,不断壮大的中产阶级也在提升其需求。”

但是国际货币基金组织经济学家称撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区的增长预测已经削弱,特别是尼日利亚和南非。原材料(被称为商品)价格下跌也会削弱拉美和加勒比地区的增长预测。

汇率也会影响经济增长,美元增值而欧元和日元贬值。

预计美国今年也将显示3%多的良好增长。

联合国经济学家预测东亚就将持续成为发展最快的地区,经济增长将近5%,然而,货币基金组织和联合国经济学家预计中国在2015年的经济增长将低于7%。

以上是经济报道,我是Mario Ritter。



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