Economists doubtful on three Fed interest rate rises
The Federal Reserve will wait six months before raising interest rates again, according to a survey of top economists that suggests policymakers will maintain a cautious approach to tightening policy until they see the economic package US president-elect Donald Trump has promised.
一项对顶级经济学家的调查显示，美联储(Federal Reserve)在再次加息之前将等待6个月，这似乎表明，政策制定者在看到美国当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)承诺的一揽子经济政策之前，将对收紧政策保持谨慎态度。
Officials will raise the Fed’s key short-term rate just twice in 2017, starting with a move in June, an FT survey of 31 Wall Street economists found. The findings come days after the central bank pushed its official rate higher for only the second time since the financial crisis and rattled bond markets by projecting three further moves next year.
“Global growth will improve next year but remain under its long term trend,“ said Gregory Daco, an economist with Oxford Economics. “Mr Trump’s policies, and the expectation of them, will be pivotal to global developments.“
“明年全球经济增长将会改善，但仍将处于长期趋势线下方，“牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)经济学家格雷戈里•达科(Gregory Daco)说。“特朗普的政策，以及对这些政策的预期，将是全球形势的关键。“
The property magnate’s US election victory last month helped end a record-breaking debt rally that had pushed interest rates across developed economies to fresh lows over the summer. Investors and traders are anticipating that working with a Republican-controlled Congress, Mr Trump will be able to deliver tax cuts and fiscal stimulus that turbocharges the US economy.
However, the FT survey found that economists expect the gloss Mr Trump can add to US growth next year and in 2018 to be modest. The US will grow an additional 0.2 percentage points in 2017 thanks to a stimulus package from Mr Trump, putting overall expansion at 2.2 per cent, economists project. In 2018, Mr Trump’s contribution will be 0.4 percentage points, pushing GDP growth to 2.3 per cent.
In recent years, financial markets have been sceptical of the trajectory for interest rates that the Fed lays out in its quarterly dot plots. This year, for example, the central bank began forecasting four interest rate rises but delivered just one.
However, following the Fed’s December meeting, interest-rate futures now put the odds of policymakers following through on three rises in 2017 at 46 per cent. That brings the expectation of financial markets closer to the Fed’s own forecasts than they have been all year.
The sharp move in bond yields last week underlines that markets are taking the Fed’s projections more seriously. The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped as high as 1.3 per cent, the highest level since 2009, while an important short-term US dollar money market rate, three-month Libor, on Friday approached 1 percent for the first time since 2009.
According to the FT survey, the target range for the Fed’s funds rate will end 2017 at 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent.
The FT conducted its survey between December 15 and 16.