调查:美联储明年可能仅加息两次

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2016-12-20 13:42

Economists doubtful on three Fed interest rate rises
调查:美联储明年可能仅加息两次


The Federal Reserve will wait six months before raising interest rates again, according to a survey of top economists that suggests policymakers will maintain a cautious approach to tightening policy until they see the economic package US president-elect Donald Trump has promised.

一项对顶级经济学家的调查显示,美联储(Federal Reserve)在再次加息之前将等待6个月,这似乎表明,政策制定者在看到美国当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)承诺的一揽子经济政策之前,将对收紧政策保持谨慎态度。

Officials will raise the Fed’s key short-term rate just twice in 2017, starting with a move in June, an FT survey of 31 Wall Street economists found. The findings come days after the central bank pushed its official rate higher for only the second time since the financial crisis and rattled bond markets by projecting three further moves next year.

英国《金融时报》对31位华尔街经济学家的调查发现,官员们在2017年将仅两次上调美联储主要短期利率,第一次将在6月进行。调查结果出炉的几天前,美国央行进行了自金融危机以来的仅仅第二次加息,并预测明年还将加息三次,让债券市场受到惊吓。

“Global growth will improve next year but remain under its long term trend,“ said Gregory Daco, an economist with Oxford Economics. “Mr Trump’s policies, and the expectation of them, will be pivotal to global developments.“

“明年全球经济增长将会改善,但仍将处于长期趋势线下方,“牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)经济学家格雷戈里•达科(Gregory Daco)说。“特朗普的政策,以及对这些政策的预期,将是全球形势的关键。“

The property magnate’s US election victory last month helped end a record-breaking debt rally that had pushed interest rates across developed economies to fresh lows over the summer. Investors and traders are anticipating that working with a Republican-controlled Congress, Mr Trump will be able to deliver tax cuts and fiscal stimulus that turbocharges the US economy.

这位房地产大亨上月当选美国总统,帮助结束了一波创纪录的债务涨势,后者在今年夏天把发达经济体的利率压低至新的低点。投资者和交易员们预计,与共和党控制的国会合作,特朗普将能够兑现减税和财政刺激承诺,有力提振美国经济。

However, the FT survey found that economists expect the gloss Mr Trump can add to US growth next year and in 2018 to be modest. The US will grow an additional 0.2 percentage points in 2017 thanks to a stimulus package from Mr Trump, putting overall expansion at 2.2 per cent, economists project. In 2018, Mr Trump’s contribution will be 0.4 percentage points, pushing GDP growth to 2.3 per cent.

然而,上述英国《金融时报》调查发现,经济学家们预期,特朗普明年和2018年给美国经济增长带来的推动作用不会太大。经济学家们预测,得益于特朗普的刺激计划,美国经济2017年将多增长0.2个百分点,总体增长率达到2.2%。2018年,特朗普的贡献将是0.4个百分点,推动国内生产总值(GDP)增长率达到2.3%。

In recent years, financial markets have been sceptical of the trajectory for interest rates that the Fed lays out in its quarterly dot plots. This year, for example, the central bank began forecasting four interest rate rises but delivered just one.

近年来,金融市场对美联储在其季度点图上标出的利率轨迹持怀疑态度。以今年为例,美国央行最初预测四次加息,但结果只加了一次。

However, following the Fed’s December meeting, interest-rate futures now put the odds of policymakers following through on three rises in 2017 at 46 per cent. That brings the expectation of financial markets closer to the Fed’s own forecasts than they have been all year.

然而,在美联储12月会议之后,从利率期货看,市场认为政策制定者在2017年兑现三次加息这个预测的几率为46%。这意味着相比今年全年的情况,金融市场的预期现在更接近美联储自己的预测。

The sharp move in bond yields last week underlines that markets are taking the Fed’s projections more seriously. The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped as high as 1.3 per cent, the highest level since 2009, while an important short-term US dollar money market rate, three-month Libor, on Friday approached 1 percent for the first time since 2009.

上周债券收益率急剧上升,突显市场对美联储的预测更加重视。两年期美国国债收益率高达1.3%,是2009年以来的最高水平,而重要的短期美元货币市场利率——3个月伦敦同业拆借利率(Libor)——上周五自2009年以来首次接近1%。

According to the FT survey, the target range for the Fed’s funds rate will end 2017 at 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent.

根据英国《金融时报》调查,美联储联邦基金利率的目标区间在2017年底将达到1%至1.25%。

The FT conducted its survey between December 15 and 16.

英国《金融时报》是在12月15日至16日进行此项调查。