中国负债39.4万亿,达到国内生产总值的282%

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2017-8-9 10:38

据彭博社报道,根据麦肯锡全球研究所公布的数据显示,2007年金融海啸后,中国债务/GDP一路由158%攀升,目前负债规模已经达到国内生产总值的282%。尽管其他主要经济体国家的负债情况并没有比中国乐观多少,但中国信贷扩增速度之快已经引发了担忧。中国已经出台一系列有针对性的措施来刺激经济增长,与此同时这些措施还能避免债务规模过度膨胀。

尽管中国银行业到目前为止还没有对于地方政府过度举债亮起红灯,但坏账规模的扩大已经是一个非常明确的信号。对于非金融机构借贷者,尤其是房地产开发商,他们所背负的债务负担越来越重。

中国有大约三成贷款来自所谓的“影子银行“,后者目前是着力解决的金融顽疾。影子银行的存在,使得中国金融系统的透明性备受国际社会的指责。

With US$29 trillion (S$39.4 trillion) in debt, China’s potential slowdown in economic growth may be a cause for concern but some do not expect its high growth to last forever, anyway.
29万亿美元(合39.4万亿新加坡元)的债务,中国经济增长的潜在放缓在一定程度上令人担忧。也有一些人认为,中国的高增长不会永远持续下去。

It would be unrealistic to expect China to grow at 7 per cent-8 per cent forever. For an economy that is already the world’s largest in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), and amid a spell of prolonged slow growth globally, a growth rate of 5 per cent is still very rapid, said Pong Teng Siew, head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.
“指望中国永远以7%至8%的速度增长是不现实的。“在购买力平价方面,中国已经是世界上最大的经济体,而且在全球经济增长持续放缓的情况下,5%的增长率仍是非常迅速的。

If China can’t reduce its reliance on debt, said Bloomberg, quoting an International Monetary Fund working paper, growth can slow from 6.9 per cent achieved in the first half of the year, to 5 per cent by 2021.
彭博援引国际货币基金组织的一份工作报告称,如果中国不能减少对债务的依赖,中国经济增长可能会从上半年的6.9%放缓至2021年的5%。

Growth could fall below 3 per cent if it goes through a financial crisis. The impact would ripple across the global economy, which last year, got about a third of its expansion from China, said Bloomberg, quoting Nomura Holdings Inc.
如果经历一场金融危机,增长率可能会降至3%以下。彭博援引野村控股的话说,这种影响将波及全球的经济,去年,中国为全球经济增长贡献了约三分之一。

With or without the problem of debt, it will come to a reasonable growth rate," said Danny Wong, CEO, Areca Capital.
“不管有没有债务问题,最终都会达到一个合理的增长率,“Areca Capital的首席执行官丹尼.黄说。

The shift from export-oriented growth to one that is more consumption driven, will mitigate the effects of the slowdown in growth.
“从出口导向型增长转变为消费驱动型增长,将缓解经济增长放缓的影响。“

Compared with the United States, Japan and the European Union, China is able to sustain growth with debt through internal consumption, based on the size of its population, said Wong.
他说:“与美国、日本和欧盟相比,中国能够根据人口的规模,通过内部消费来维持经济增长。“

Overall government, household and corporate debt in China exceeds US$28.8 trillion, or 258 per cent of gross domestic product.
中国政府、家庭和企业债务总额超过28.8万亿美元,占国内生产总值的258%。

gdp
About US$17 trillion, according to Bloomberg, is concentrated on corporate balance sheets, particularly those of state-owned enterprises, construction companies and property developers.
根据彭博社的数据,大约17万亿美元的资金主要集中在企业的资产负债表上,尤其是国有企业、建筑公司和房地产开发商的资产负债表上。

With such high levels of debt, Beijing is considered to require a "great deleveraging" process.
在如此高的债务水平下,大多数人认为中国政府需要一个“去杠杆化“的过程。

The Chinese authorities are likely to proceed with care to prevent a sharp economic adjustment, said Lee Heng Guie, executive director, Socio Economic Research Centre.
社会经济研究中心执行主任李恒贵说:“中国当局很可能会小心谨慎,以防止经济急剧调整。“

China’s banking regulator in June ordered lenders to scrutinise their exposure to four private conglomerates with US$75bil-plus in deals at home and abroad since the start of 2016: Dalian Wanda Group, Anbang Insurance Group, Fosun International Ltd and aviation and shipping giant HNA Group Co.
今年6月,中国银行业监管机构下令,放款方需对中国内地和海外的四家民营企业集团(包括大连万达集团、安邦保险集团、复星国际有限公司、航空和航运巨头海航集团)自2016年年初以来的敞口进行审查。

Several major Chinese banks that helped fund HNA’s global acquisitions have stopped issuing new loans to them, said Bloomberg News.
彭博新闻称,一些帮助海航全球收购的中国主要银行已经停止向它们发放新的贷款。

The move towards a more restrictive stance on outward investment by Chinese companies, especially for non-strategic investments, will likely weigh on investments into the region.
中国企业在对外投资方面采取更严格的立场,尤其是对非战略投资,可能会影响到该地区的投资。

However, the Chinese government is unlikely to put on hold the One Belt, One Road initiative as the projects are infrastructure-related and long term in nature," said Lee.
李恒贵说:“然而,中国政府不太可能一直坚持“一带一路“倡议,因为这些项目都是与基础设施相关的,而且是长期的。“

The combined impact of China’s deleveraging process and slowing economic growth are likely to have a negative spillover effect on regional economies via trade and financial channels, added Lee.
李恒贵说,中国的去杠杆化过程和经济增长放缓的综合影响可能会通过贸易和金融渠道对地区经济产生负面的溢出效应。