经济学人下载:权贵头上的一把刀 看普京如何杯酒释兵权?



2016-10-21 10:19

经济学人下载:权贵头上的一把刀 看普京如何杯酒释兵权?


Europe Russian politics
欧洲 俄罗斯政坛风向突变

Putin’s purges

Interpreting a sudden crackdown on extravagant officials

For senior members of the United Russia party it was like a scene from Mikhail Bulgakov’s “The Master and Margarita“. They would have special affinity with Nikanor Ivanovich Bosoi, chairman of the tenants’ association tricked by Woland (Satan in disguise). The roubles he gets from Woland’s sidekick and stuffs into a ventilation shaft turn into dollars. Bosoi is arrested and put in a psychiatric ward, where he dreams of a bass voice booming from the sky: “Hand over your foreign currency!“
对于统一俄罗斯党的高层来说,如今这幅景象就像米哈 伊尔·布尔加科夫的《大师和玛格丽特》中写的一样。他们一定对书中的伊万诺维奇·波索伊印象深刻,这位 租户协会主席被由魔鬼撒旦乔装的乌兰欺骗。他从乌兰的口袋里搞到苏联卢布,然后通过通风井变成美元。波索伊后来被捕,并被投入精神病院。在病床上,他梦见 从空中传来一阵低沉的声音:“把你手里的外汇交出来!“


This time the voice asking for a handover of foreign bank accounts was President Vladimir Putin’s. On February 12th he submitted a bill to the Duma banning officials and lawmakers from having foreign bank accounts or investing in foreign government debt. The draft also banned the ownership of property abroad, though this was subsequently changed to merely demanding its declaration.

A day later Vladimir Pekhtin, a founder of United Russia and head of the Duma’s ethics committee, was revealed as the owner of an undeclared $1.3mluxury apartment in Miami Beach. The details were posted on the internet by Alexei Navalny, an opposition activist and blogger. Mr Pekhtin brushed off these “unmerited accusations“. “I practically have no property abroad,“ he insisted. Yet on February 20th, doubtless after hearing Mr Putin’s voice he resigned from the Duma. Even though he had done nothing wrong, he said, the scandal tainted the party and its interests must come above his own. Another United Russia deputy, Anatoly Lomakin, with an estimated fortune of $1.2 billion, resigned “for health reasons“. More deputies are on their way out, say press reports. State television showed pictures ofMiami Beachapartments and talked of purges and a return of moral values.
一天之后,身为统俄党缔造者、俄罗斯杜马道德委员会负责人的弗拉基米尔·佩赫廷被爆出在迈阿密海滩拥有一所并未公开、价值130万美元的奢华公寓。这些细 节是由俄罗斯反对派活动家、博客作家阿莱克谢·纳瓦尔尼通过网络爆出。佩赫廷否认了这些“不当指责“,他坚称:“事实上我在境外没有财产。“不过在2月 20日,佩赫廷选择从杜马辞职,毫无疑问这是普京的授意。佩赫廷表示,虽然自己并没有做错什么事,但这个爆料被视为玷污统俄党的丑闻,党的利益高于他的个 人利益,他只能认栽。另一位统俄党党员、身价达120亿美元的安纳托利·罗马金因“健康原因“而辞职。据媒体报道,更多的统俄党人士在寻找出路。俄罗斯国 家电视台播送了迈阿密海滩公寓的照片,并谈及这次党内清洗,言及这是道德价值的回归。

In place of public denunciations and 1930s show trials, the “purged“ Mr Pekhtin was greeted by standing ovations from his comrades who called him an example of morality. No proceedings were started against him and he could yet end up with a cushy job. Nevertheless, the purges signal a shift in Russia’s politics.

Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin consultant, explains that, in the past, the nomenklatura were shielded from opponents’ criticism and left to enjoy the fruits of their loyalty at home and abroad without interference from the top. Mr Pekhtin’s resignation shows that this no longer holds true, but without explaining what the new rules are. This makes the elite nervous, which may be no bad thing from Mr Putin’s viewpoint.
前克里姆林宫智囊格莱布·帕夫洛夫斯基对此解读说,在苏联时代,政府大员们没有政治对手攻击之虞,只要忠于体制,就能尊享国内国外的种种特权,还不会受到 高层干预。佩赫廷的辞职表明这一现象将是明日黄花,只不过新的游戏规则还没有厘定出来。这会让俄罗斯的权贵们紧张不安,不过按照普京的观点这可能不是什么 坏事。

The purges are not a concession to the opposition. Using Mr Navalny’s information to its advantage has not stopped the Kremlin from throwing new accusations at him. Nor do they stem from a sudden conversion to the principle of democratic accountability. Rather, say Kremlinologists, they reflect Mr Putin’s need to gain more legitimacy among voters and tighten his grip over an elite that likes to keep its assets and children in the West.
不过清洗并不代表对反对派的让步。虽然当局采用了纳瓦尔尼的信息,不过这并不会让克林姆林宫停止对他提起新指控。这些变化并非源于民主问责制。相反,按克 里姆林宫问题专家的说法,这反倒折射出普京需要从选民手里获得更多的支持,并像对待他们在西方国家的财产和移居西方的小孩一样,收紧对俄罗斯权贵阶层的控 制。

Behind the purges lies an assumption that the West is plotting against him and could exploit the private interests of Russian officials. Mr Putin seems to see America’s Magnitsky act, which threatens sanctions against Russian officials involved in human-rights abuses, as an attempt to control them. Hence his wish to “ring-fence“ the elite from Western influence and gain more leverage.
清洗的背后也有这样一种假设,即西方正在密谋反对普京,而且可能会利用俄罗斯官员的私人利益来达到目的。美国已经弄出了个“马格尼茨基法案“,这项法案威 胁要制裁在马格尼茨基案中侵犯人权的俄罗斯官员,这就是在尝试去控制俄罗斯官员。因此普京要把俄罗斯的精英们从西方的影响中“隔离开来“,加大对这一群体 的影响。

But Mr Putin’s options are limited. Access to Western goods, services and property is a pillar of his system. Removing it could turn more of the elite against him. Random (and so far soft) purges, a ban on foreign bank accounts and anti-American hysteria may be mere half-measures, but even they may be too extreme. Alexei Venediktov, editor of Echo Moskvy, a radio station, comments that “Mr Putin has tied an axe over the head of the elite. But being a cautious politician, he considers a threat of repression more effective than repression itself.“
但是普京手里的牌却不多。精英阶层购买西方商品,享受西方服务,置购西方地产,这些特权是支持普京权利体系的支柱,现在回收这些特权可能会把权贵们赶到自 己对立面去。虽然在普京看来,肆意清洗(现在还算轻的),禁开外国银行账户以及对美国妄想症般的诋毁都不过是折中方案,即便如此,这些方案都显得太过于极 端。“莫斯科回声“电台编辑阿莱克谢·维涅季克托夫评价说:“普京在权贵头上悬了一把斧头。但是作为一个审慎的政治家,他知道高压的威胁远比高压本身更有 效果。“

Repression is used against protesters but also on junior officials. In the past year over 800 cases have been opened into local officials, councillors and mayors. The highest-profile casualty so far was Anatoly Serdyukov, an ex-defence minister implicated in a procurement scandal. He was fired and humiliated on state television, but not arrested or charged. Whether he is now brought before the judges will show just how far Mr Putin’s purges go.
镇压不仅用在抗议者身上,还用在高官们身上。在过去的2012年,俄罗斯有800多个案子涉及到地方官员、议员和市长们。迄今为止,最大的受害者就是前国 防部长谢尔久科夫,他是因一桩采购丑闻而落马。他被解了职,还在国家电视台上出了洋相,不过没有被关押和指控。他会不会被送到法官面前取决于普京的清洗行 动会走多远。